⚾ Yankees vs. Mets Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, May 15

Former New York Yankees closer Clay Holmes leads the New York Mets into a series opener against their crosstown rivals at Citi Field, where Cam Schittler opposes him on the mound. First pitch for this Subway Series matchup is set for 7:10 p.m. ET (Apple TV), and the Yankees are -160 betting favorites.

My Yankees vs. Mets prediction calls for a low-scoring game from two offenses that have been quiet for much of the past week. I'm also fading a Bronx Bomber who should continue to struggle in his first few games of big-league action, but I do back a Yankees slugger to go deep in my MLB picks.

⚾ Yankees vs. Mets picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.94 units

🏆 Who will win Yankees vs. Mets?

The Yankees are 7-2 in Cam Schlittler’s nine starts, and have handled teams with losing records all season (they’re 26-11 against teams under .500).

Score prediction: Yankees 4, Mets 3

💰 Yankees vs. Mets prediction & best bet

First five innings Under 4 (-118)

When the Yankees started out their current nine-game road trip 0-4, they batted .167 with a .544 team OPS over that span. Following a six-run output in their lone win of the road trip, they were promptly shut out while being limited to just a Jazz Chisholm Jr. fifth-inning double.

Meanwhile, Schlitter enters amid a 15-inning scoreless streak, as he ranks second in ERA and WHIP among qualifying pitchers. The Mets, who have several impactful bats on the IL, sandwiched two rare nine-plus-run outputs around five other games where they averaged just 2.0 runs per game while going 2-3.

🔥 Best Yankees vs. Mets player prop bet

Anthony Volpe Under 0.5 hits (+121)

Had it not been for the Yankees’ everyday shortstop, Jose Caballero, landing on the IL, Anthony Volpe would likely still be working out his struggles in the minor leagues.

In nine Triple-A games, Volpe batted just .205, with one home run, five RBIs, two stolen bases, and a .571 OPS. And though he has been the primary starting shortstop each of the last three seasons, his .212 average and .663 OPS last season didn’t inspire much confidence for this year to begin with.

Clay Holmes has actually gotten better as games have gone on this year, improving from a .225 OBA and .292 slugging percentage allowed over the first three innings to a .160 OBA and .280 slugging percentage allowed in innings four through six. 

💣 Yankees vs. Mets home run prediction

Cody Bellinger to hit a home run (+750)

Schlittler’s 0.17 HR/9 rate is tied for the second-lowest among all qualified pitchers. Thus, the better value lies in identifying a Yankee to go deep.

Cody Bellinger is in the right batting split since Holmes has allowed a slugging percentage 116 points higher to left-handed hitters than righties.

Bellinger has a .340/.443/.660 slash line over the last 15 days, and 10 of his 17 hits in that span have gone for extra bases. He has had two other 11-game home run droughts like the one he’s in now, but hasn’t gone 12 straight without a homer this year.

🚀 Yankees vs. Mets same-game parlay

The first two legs of this same-game parlay complement each other well, with a low-scoring game early increasing the chances that Volpe remains hitless. Since my Bellinger home run play contradicts a play on the total, I'm backing him to go Over his total bases, which he can either do with multiple singles or by ending a six-game drought without an extra-base hit.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Yankees vs. Mets: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

As much as I'm a believer in the Yankees' chances to win the AL pennant, their bullpen is arguably the weakest and least reliable part of their team. The Mets' bullpen, with former Yankees Luke Weaver and Devin Williams, has also had its issues. That's why I'm limiting my best game pick to the first five innings total, as Schlittler and Holmes should match zeros early.

📊 Live Yankees vs. Mets odds

There is a wide gap between the Yankees' -146 moneyline odds at FanDuel and the -160 odds on the high end of the market at our other best sports betting sites. Those at -160 got there from opening numbers of -140 and -145, which suggests sharp action represents much of the 60% of the early wagers on the road favorites.

DraftKings and bet365 are the only best MLB betting sites that have seen movement on their totals so far. DraftKings was the only one thus far to touch 6.5, but its total was quickly bet back up to its opening number of seven. bet365 is currently at an O/U of seven after opening slightly higher at 7.5. If the betting splits remain similar to what we've seen thus far (53/47 in favor of the Over), we shouldn't see much more movement in the total throughout the day.

📈 Yankees vs. Mets betting trends

🚑 Yankees vs. Mets injuries

📺 How to watch Yankees vs. Mets

• Date: Friday, May 15
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Citi Field (Queens, N.Y.)
• Streaming: Apple TV
• Yankees starter: Cam Schlittler (5-1, 1.35 ERA)
• Mets starter: Clay Holmes (4-3, 1.86 ERA)