⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Friday, May 15
Major League Baseball returns to Coors Field for a weekend series, and two of my home run predictions today come from the NL West battle played at altitude.
Both Merrill Kelly and Kyle Freeland have had trouble keeping the ball in the yard, which is why I’m fading both with MLB home run picks on TJ Rumfield and Nolan Arenado, respectively. I’m also backing a Washington Nationals slugger on the heels of the team’s season-high six-home run performance earlier this week, and have a value play on Chase DeLauter, who is near the top of most AL Rookie of the Year futures odds leaderboards.
⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 15
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Rumfield to hit a home run (+520 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.3u | Rumfield has homered in three straight three-game series |
| James Wood to hit a home run (+450 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.13u | His elite hard-hit and fly ball metrics should keep him among the HR leaders all season |
| Chase DeLauter to hit a home run (+650 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.63u | DeLauter is due for his first MLB home run off a southpaw given his tremendous lefty-lefty splits |
| Nolan Arenado to hit a home run (+475 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.19u | The former Rockies legend has great career numbers at Coors Field |
Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 5.25 units
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💣 Best home run prediction today
TJ Rumfield to hit a home run (+520)
Merrill Kelly finally made it through a start without allowing a home run, after he had allowed six long balls over his first four starts. He has allowed nine home runs in nine career starts at Coors Field, and his struggles against left-handed batters this season makes TJ Rumfield a great value play.
Kelly has allowed a 1.216 OPS to lefties, with five of his six home runs surrendered coming in that split. Meanwhile, Rumfield has been on fire this month, slashing .317/.364/.561 despite playing five of the 11 games on the road.
📡 SBR Edge: Consistency across series
In each of the Rockies' last three series of three or more games, Rumfield has homered at least once (these will be his first career at-bats against Kelly).
🔥 More home run picks today
James Wood to hit a home run (+450)
The Nationals belted six home runs against the Reds earlier this week, their most in a game since Aug. 2019 (eight). They now enter the weekend in the top 10 in home runs, and I’m backing their leadoff hitter to inch closer to the league lead in dingers.
Wood has an eye-popping 62% hard-hit rate, and that in combination with his 30% fly ball rate (up from 18.2% and 21.3% the last two years) makes him a threat to go yard daily.
He faces Shane Baz, who has allowed a .900 OPS to opposing left-handed hitters. Baz has allowed at least one homer in five of his last six starts, while the Orioles bullpen ranks in the bottom 10 in HR/9 rate.
💥 Bronx Bombers
Looking for a slugger to back in the Subway Series? Check out my Yankees vs. Mets prediction.
Chase DeLauter to hit a home run (+650)
Chase DeLauter sees the ball extremely well for a rookie. His 1.25 K/BB ratio is the third-best among all sluggers with a minimum of 100 plate appearances. He is also the only player with a .500 slugging percentage or better than has more walks than strikeouts.
All six of DeLauter’s homers have come against right-handed pitchers. But he is due for a long ball against a southpaw, as he has slashed .405/.435/.595 in that split.
Reds lefty Andrew Abbott has been torched by left-handed batters for a .372/.400/.512 slash line, with two of his five home runs allowed in that split (in 96 fewer at-bats).
Nolan Arenado to hit a home run (+475)
Nolan Arenado made five All-Star teams in his eight seasons with the Rockies, and he is a career .319 hitter with a .980 OPS at Coors Field.
Arenado has never homered off of Kyle Freeland, but he has totaled a 1.283 OPS in a small 10 at-bat sample size, with two of his five hits going for extra bases.
Freeland has allowed multiple home runs in back-to-back starts, and six total long balls in his last three outings spanning 14 ⅓ innings. And the southpaw is not just a casualty of the Coors Field altitude, as four of his seven home runs allowed have come on the road, while his OBA is 57 points higher away from home.
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
Two legs of this home run parlay are a direct product of ballpark environment, as I'm doubling down on sluggers at Coors Field with my Rumfield and Arenado plays. My other two home run picks back sluggers who are in a great hitting split, with Wood opposing Shane Baz and DeLauter facing Andrew Abbott, who have both struggled mightily against left-handed hitters this season.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- TJ Rumfield to hit a home run (+475)
- James Wood to hit a home run (+450)
- Chase DeLauter to hit a home run (+650)
- Nolan Arenado to hit a home run (+475)
Best odds: +136283 via bet365 (0.1u -> 136.3u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 83-121 | +23.12 units ✅ | +17.2% ✅ |
| Player props | 57-101 | +18.58 units ✅ | +20.9% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Anytime there is baseball played at Coors Field, I'm going to look into home run wagers from those games given that they are often the ones with the highest O/Us on the day's slate.
With my other two non-Diamondbacks vs. Rockies wagers, I wanted to strike a balance between a slugger atop the home run leaderboard and one who has hit his fair share, but still provides value with a high potential ROI. I've created that balance with Wood and DeLauter, who are both in enticing splits against starting pitchers that have struggled with left-handed bats (it helps that they're both facing teams with poor bullpens as well).
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