Yankees vs. Red Sox MLB Picks: Back Underdog Sox to Earn Series Split

Mike Spector

Last Updated: July 10, 2022 4:45 AM EDT • 2 min 57 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

BOSTON, MA - JULY 9: Alex Verdugo #99 of the Boston Rede Sox celebrates after hitting the game winning 2 RBI single in the tenth inning against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park on July 9, 2022 in Boston, Massachusetts. Kathryn Riley/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Kathryn Riley / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox conclude a drama-filled four-game series at Fenway Park on Sunday Night Baseball. We have highlighted the odds, line movement, and best picks for Sunday's Yankees-Red Sox AL East clash.

The Yankees were three outs away from entering Sunday with a chance to complete a four-game sweep, but the Red Sox came back from a 5-3 deficit and scored three runs to walk off with a 6-5 victory. The win was Boston's second in the previous 12 regular-season meetings against their division rival.

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Sunday's game between the Yankees and Red Sox (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Yankees vs. Red Sox Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, July 10, 7 p.m. ETLocation: Fenway Park, Boston, MAWeather: 75 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, Wind SE 7 mph

Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds

Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds Analysis

The Yankees range from -131 moneyline favorites at PointsBet to -135 at many other top sportsbooks. This line will surely rise if the betting action remains the same, as 83% of the tickets and 80% of the cash have backed New York's moneyline odds.

All sportsbooks are in unison on the projected nine-run total, with all more heavily juiced to the Over. As of early Sunday morning, the Over had received 81% of the bets and 90% of the cash.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Projected Pitchers

Jameson Taillon (9-2, 3.63 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) vs. Nick Pivetta (8-6, 3.68 ERA, 1.16 WHIP)

After his first June start, his second consecutive start allowing two hits over eight innings, Jameson Taillon's ERA sat at a season-low 2.30 with his best OBA (.220). However, since then, Taillon has been in free-fall mode, allowing 21 earned runs in his previous 28 2.3 innings, while his OBA has spiked to .264.

In many ways, Nick Pivetta is on pace for a career year in his second full season in Boston. Pivetta's WHIP, FIP (3.64), and H/9 rate (7.4) would all be career bests if the season ended today. He allowed a season-high seven earned runs over 5 2.3 innings in his last start against Tampa Bay, which broke a streak of four consecutive quality starts.

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Yankees vs. Red Sox Picks

Red Sox (+115 via Caesars) ???Over 9 runs (-110 via BetMGM) ?????Giancarlo Stanton Over 0.5 RBI (+125 via DraftKings Sportsbook) ???

Yankees vs. Red Sox ML Pick

Red Sox ML (+115)

The Red Sox should be commended for how they have battled in a series where they trotted out three consecutive rookie pitchers to face MLB's highest-scoring offense. Thus, it will feel like a considerable reprieve to send its only healthy veteran starting pitcher to the mound Sunday.

Pivetta has led the team to wins in eight of his last 11 starts. Pivetta's ability to keep the ball in the yard will pay huge dividends against a Yankees lineup that thrives on home runs. New York has hit a league-leading 144 home runs (12 more than any other team), but Pivetta has pitched to a career-best 0.9 HR/9 so far, which is a big reason for his dependable 3.65 FIP.

Yankees vs. Red Sox O/U Pick

Over 9 (-110)

Every game in this series has soared over the projected run total, and this game should be no different, especially with New York's most vulnerable pitcher on the mound. Taillon has not made it past the fifth inning in any of his previous six starts, and his inability to eat innings could tax a Yankees bullpen that used its three-best relievers last night, including Clay Holmes, in an attempt to secure a four-out save.

Boston's offense ranks in the top 10 in wRC+ for the season and over the past 30 days and is also top-five in average exit velocity, hard-hit, and barrel rate.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Player Prop

Stanton Over 0.5 RBI (+125)

Pivetta has pitched to an ERA of 6.75 in four career starts against the Yankees, with a near 10% walk rate in those starts. In addition, he ranks in the bottom 10% of average exit velocity allowed, and no one in the league hits the ball harder than Giancarlo Stanton.

The Yankees slugger is still tied for second on the team with 54 RBI despite being mired in a 1-for-20 slump, but we expect him to break out of it in a big way Sunday.

Where to Bet on Yankees-Red Sox Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook Caesars Sportsbook DraftKings Sportsbook PointsBet BetMGM

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Yankees-Red Sox picks made 7/10/2022 at 8:59 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Mike Spector

I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.