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Lance Lynn #33 of the United States pitches as we look at our top USA vs. Venezuela picks
Lance Lynn #33 of the United States pitches in the first inning against Canada during a World Baseball Classic Pool C game at Chase Field on March 13, 2023 in Phoenix, Arizona. Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images via AFP.

It’s win or go home for the USA in Saturday’s WBC quarterfinal matchup with Venezuela in Miami. Can Team USA serve Venezuela its first loss of the tournament? Read on for our USA vs. Venezuela picks for the WBC quarterfinals.

Venezuela was a juggernaut in pool play, going 4-0 with wins over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic to not merely steal a spot in the quarterfinals, but to march into the next round with authority.

Can Team USA, the defending champions of the World Baseball Classic, knock off this red-hot Venezuelan group?

Here is our best USA vs. Venezuela pick (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

USA vs. Venezuela pick: WBC 2023

Venezuela +1.5 (-150 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The United States has not scored to the level of the expectations placed upon its star-studded lineup so far in this tournament. To successfully emerge from pool play, Team USA needed a win over Colombia. In a game that the USA entered as a 7.5-run favorite, the Americans escaped with a 3-2 win.

The expected starters for Saturday's must-win contest are Lance Lynn for the United States and Martin Perez for Venezuela. Lynn started against Canada and went five innings with just two hits and one run allowed.

Perez might seem like a hittable target for the Americans, but he’s also responsible for holding the loaded Dominican lineup to just one run over 3 1/3 innings in his previous WBC start. Underestimate the 31-year-old starter coming off a career year at your own peril.

The United States is capable offensively of opening this thing up, but given it hasn't done it regularly in this tournament, I’m expecting another tight contest in this quarterfinal matchup. In what could be a one-run game in either direction, getting 1.5 runs with Venezuela feels like a quality play.

USA vs. Venezuela best odds: WBC 2023

DraftKings: +1.5 (-150)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
Venezuela +1.5Venezuela +1.5Venezuela +1.5Venezuela +1.5Venezuela +1.5
-150-150-150-150-155

All of our best sportsbooks list Venezuela at +1.5 with hefty juice required to bet the run line cover. PointsBet offers the worst odds with -155 on the underdog.

While the price on the odds keeps this limited to a three-star recommendation, it’s a worthwhile distinction relative to the moneyline. The United States could lose this game.

USA vs. Venezuela odds analysis

The United States are favored by 1.5 runs across each of our sports betting sites that offer a run line on the matchup. Bettors looking to back Venezuela on the run line must pay a premium on the odds to -150, but you could find Team Venezuela at plus money on the moneyline at both FanDuel and Caesars.

The total is listed at 9 at the majority of books, but FanDuel has bumped the number to 9.5 with heavy -138 juice on the Under.

United States vs. Venezuela game info

  • Date: Saturday, March 18, 7 p.m. ET
  • TV: FOX
  • Location: loanDepot park, Miami, FL
  • Weather: Indoors

United States-Venezuela pick made 03/17/2023 at 6 p.m. ET.

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

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