Tigers vs. Yankees Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Tuesday, June 30

One would be hard-pressed to find a better pitching matchup among American League starters than the one in the Bronx tonight, as defending Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal is opposed by current Cy Young Award favorite Cam Schlittler. My Tigers vs. Yankees prediction expects a low-scoring affair early.  

First pitch at Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET (TBS), and the Yankees are -140 betting favorites. There is value in Detroit rookie Kevin McGonigle to score a run, and I add a Paul Goldschmidt home run wager to the last of my MLB picks.

⚾ Tigers vs. Yankees picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

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🏆 Who will win Tigers vs. Yankees?

The Yankees lost three straight games to Red Sox southpaws over the weekend, so I’m backing the Tigers behind a dominant outing from Tarik Skubal.

Score prediction: Tigers 3, Yankees 2

💰 Tigers vs. Yankees prediction & best bet

First five innings Under 3.5 (-108)

In New York’s four straight road losses at Boston, it was outscored 21-9, outhomered four to two, and batted just .133. To make matters worse, the Yankees were just 5-for-61 with runners in scoring position. Meanwhile, Boston’s starting pitchers (three of which were southpaws) pitched to a 1.01 ERA, while New York’s starters turned in a respectable 3.86 ERA.

I am expecting another solid outing from Cam Schlittler. Among American League qualified starters, he ranks first in ERA, tied for fourth in innings, second in K/9 rate and opponents’ average, and fourth in walks per nine innings.

🔥 Best Tigers vs. Yankees player prop bet

Kevin McGonigle Over 0.5 runs scored (+133)

Kevin McGonigle broke a seven-game drought without a run scored by crossing the plate in four consecutive games (five times total).

The Detroit slugger has a strong chance to take home AL Rookie of the Year honors. Among all rookies (min. 150 PA), he entered the week ranked fifth in batting average and extra-base hits, fourth in OPS, and first in runs and on-base percentage. 

McGonigle had two multi-hit games with two extra-base hits in the three-game home series against the Yankees last week. While Schlittler didn’t pitch in that series, the rookie has a great chance to cross the plate if he continues to put himself in scoring position. 

💣 Tigers vs. Yankees home run prediction

Paul Goldschmidt to hit a home run (+480)

Paul Goldschmidt hasn’t homered in five games, dating back to when he went deep twice off of Tarik Skubal last Wednesday. Goldschmidt is one of four players with multiple home runs in a game off Skubal, and the only one to do so twice.

Goldschmidt’s eight home runs in June are tied for the second most in a single month at age 38 or older in Yankees franchise history.

New York’s trio of Goldschmidt, Aaron Judge, and Ben Rice is one of four around the league where each player has a wRC+ of 135 or higher. With Judge injured and Rice mired in a 2-for-31 slump, I’m riding with Goldschmidt, who has been one of the best hitters against left-handed pitching all season.

🚀 Tigers vs. Yankees same-game parlay

Backing McGonigle to score a run and Goldschmidt to homer directly opposes my first five innings Under wager. Given Goldschmidt's individual success against Skubal, I am still backing him to go Over his total bases prop, while expecting McGonigle to finish with at least one hit. There are still plenty of ways a pitcher's duel can still break out early even with the last two legs of this same-game parlay cashing.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Tigers vs. Yankees: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

With the Yankees mired in a five-game losing streak, I wouldn't put anyone off backing Detroit's moneyline odds, which are as high as +120 (carrying a 45.45% implied probability) at FanDuel. Instead, my best bet is the first five innings Under, which I am backing in a matchup of aces to take relievers out of the equation. Detroit's bullpen especially entered the week outside the top 10 in ERA and xFIP, and is in the bottom half of the league in HR/9 rate.

📊 Live Tigers vs. Yankees odds

Unsurprisingly, Detroit is a popular underdog with its ace on the mound and with New York mired in a five-game losing streak. The Tigers have attracted 46% of the wagers, which moved the line as much as 10 cents at some of the best sports betting sites.

DraftKings and bet365 are currently the only sportsbooks offering an O/U of 7.0. Each was aligned with the rest of the market with an opening total of 7.5, but have lowered a half run since. The Under has attracted 65% of the wagers, making it the second-most lopsided betting split of any total on the day's slate.

📈 Tigers vs. Yankees betting trends

🚑 Tigers vs. Yankees injuries

📺 How to watch Tigers vs. Yankees

• Date: Tuesday, June 30
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, N.Y.)
• TV: TBS
• Streaming: MLB.TV/Prime Video
• Tigers starter: Tarik Skubal (3-4, 3.32 ERA)
• Yankees starter: Cam Schlittler (8-4, 1.62 ERA)