Rays vs. Braves Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Thursday, Sept. 10
I'm diving into my Rays vs. Braves prediction as Nick Martinez and Martin Perez toe the rubber for a duel between two of MLB's top teams on Thursday.
The Braves are lined as a -115 moneyline betting favorite as they look to avoid a three-game sweep at Truist Park in Atlanta. My MLB picks also include a Ronald Acuna Jr. total bases prop and highlight my favorite home run selection for the game. First pitch is set for 12:15 p.m. ET, airing on ESPN Unlimited.
⚾ Rays vs. Braves picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;
| Pick | Units | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Braves ML (-115 via bet365) | 2.3u → 2u | The Rays are massively outperforming their xwOBA, and regression looms |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+109 via DraftKings) | 2u → 2.18u | Acuna is destroying the sinker, Martinez’s main offering, for a .365 xBA |
| Matt Olson to hit a home run (+320 via FanDuel) | 0.7u → 2.24u | Olson has a pair of home runs against Martinez in 16 at-bats |
Total wagered: 5 units | Max profit: 6.42 units
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🏆 Who will win Rays vs. Braves?
The Tampa Bay Rays may have the wins, but the Atlanta Braves have the better statistical profile. Although the Rays are favored in the World Series odds, they don’t have to go through the Dodgers or Brewers, and Atlanta’s offensive upside is far higher than Tampa’s.
After a few bad nights at the dish, I expect a big rebound game from Atlanta.
Score prediction: Braves 5, Rays 1
💰 Rays vs. Braves prediction & best bet
Braves moneyline (-115)
The Rays have been one of the luckiest teams in baseball this season. The club’s .307 xwOBA is fourth-worst in the MLB, and it lags substantially behind its actual .323 wOBA, good for the second-biggest positive delta in the league. While they have been able to grind out 87 wins with their small-ball approach, the math has to catch up with them eventually–right?
Meanwhile, Martinez has looked very beatable in his last two outings, coughing up six earned runs for a 4.37 ERA - much closer to his 4.21 xERA than his 3.04 ERA on the year. Atlanta has a meaningful edge at the dish that Martinez won’t be able to limit tonight.
📡 SBR Edge: Home game Perez can't be beat
Perez’s home-road splits are a key data point for tonight’s game – he sports a 1.99 ERA in Atlanta (with a .179 batting average allowed) but only a 4.76 ERA (and a .278 batting average allowed) when playing outside of it.
🔥 Best Rays vs. Braves player prop bet
Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+109)
Acuna may not be mashing the fastball well this year, but he has made up for it with a .365 xBA and .755 xSLG versus sinkers, Martinez’s primary offering that he tosses 31.1% of the time.
Add in Martinez’s beatable xBA (.271) and Acuna’s impressive slash line versus RHPs (.270/.354/.465), and we’ve got a favorable read for this plus-money wager.
💣 Rays vs. Braves home run prediction
Matt Olson to hit a home run (+320)
Martinez has coughed up 19 long balls this year, but he has gotten lucky – he has surrendered 21.3 xHR. If he played every game at Truist Park, Martinez would’ve surrendered 24 long balls, too.
Most of those have gone to LHHs like Olson, who we’ll target for a bounce-back performance following a shaky few weeks as he takes on a familiar opponent – Olson is slashing .375/.474/.750 for his career against Martinez with two home runs.
📊 Live Rays vs. Braves odds
📺 How to watch Rays vs. Braves
- Date: Thursday, Sept. 10
- First pitch: 12:15 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Truist Park (Atlanta)
- TV: ESPN Unlimited
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Rays starter: Nick Martinez (14-4, 3.04 ERA)
- Braves starter: Martin Perez (8-9, 3.25 ERA)
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