Astros vs. Phillies Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Thursday, Sept. 10
The Astros take on the Phillies during the final matchup of this 3-game series. My Astros vs. Phillies prediction targets a run total, a pair of player props, and an SGP for my latest MLB picks.
It's all knotted up at 1-1, with every win taking on a bigger impact for both of these teams. The Astros are nursing a two-game lead in the A.L. West, while the Phillies hold the top N.L. Wild Card with a 4-game cushion. It's Cristian Javier vs. Zack Wheeler on the mound this afternoon.
Tune in for the first pitch at 1:05 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, streaming on MLB.TV. The Phillies enter as a heavy -193 home betting favorite.
⚾ Astros vs. Phillies picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Under 8.5 (-105 via bet365) | 2.10u → 2u | Under 8.5 has cashed in 6 of last 10 combined starts made by these pitchers. |
| Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-168 via DraftKings) | 2.60u → 1.54u | Wheeler has limited opponents to 1 earned run in back-to-back starts. |
| Bryce Harper Over 0.5 home runs (+320 via FanDuel) | 0.32u → 1.02u | Harper has hit 12 of 14 home runs at Citizens Bank Park against right-handed pitching. |
Total wagered: 5.02 units | Max profit: 4.56 units
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🏆 Who will win Astros vs. Phillies?
The Astros are being undervalued due to Wheeler taking the mound for the Phillies. Houston has a better overall lineup, while Javier is coming off one of his best starts recently. The Astros pull off the upset.
Score prediction: Astros 5, Phillies 3
💰 Astros vs. Phillies prediction & best bet
Under 8.5 (-105)
This series has flown Over 8.5 in both previous games. Now that Wheeler is toeing the rubber for the Phillies, expect limited scoring during the first 6 innings.
Javier and Wheeler have combined to cash Under 8.5 total runs in 6 of their last 10 starts. Wheeler has been dominant lately, holding two straight lineups each to 1 earned run.
Javier is the biggest variable in this run total. However, the Astros' right-handed starter just held the Diamondbacks to 1 earned run in a 3-1 win.
📡 SBR Edge: Wheeler's Up
Zack Wheeler has held three of his last four opponents to just 4 earned runs.
🔥 Best Astros vs. Phillies player prop bet
Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-168)
Varsho has been productive in this series. However, the Astros' CF is facing Wheeler today, who ranks 90th in pitching run value (16) this season. This includes the top-10 percentile for chase rate (35.7) and strikeout percentage (29.8).
Varsho has logged 6 hits, 3 runs, and 3 RBIs in seven games played this month. This includes 4 hits, 3 runs, and an RBI during this series against the Phillies.
Ranked 16th percentile for chase rate (36.1) and 23rd for xBA (.235), Varsho's going to cool off against Walker today.
💣 Astros vs. Phillies home run prediction
Bryce Harper to hit a home run (+320)
It's been a long time since we've seen Harper go yard. The Phillies' 1B is drawing a favorable matchup against Javier today, as he's recorded 12 of 14 home runs against right-handed pitchers at Citizens Bank Park.
Harper packs a ton of power at the plate. He's ranked 92nd in xSLG (.495), and Javier allows a barrel rate of 9.4, which is in the bottom 20th percentile for pitchers.
Citizens Bank Park is a hitter-friendly ballpark, particularly for left-handed hitters like Harper.
🚀 Astros vs. Phillies same-game parlay
These starting pitchers have held seven of their last 10 combined lineups to 0 earned runs in the 1st inning. Extra innings have only happened once in their last 15 combined games played. This SGP maxes out at +109 odds on DraftKings.
💵 Astros vs. Phillies SGP picks
- NRFI (-105)
- Extra Innings: No (-1400)
Best odds: +109 via DraftKings (1u -> 1.09u)
💡 How I'm betting Astros vs. Phillies: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I'm betting a total of 6.02 units on four wagers for today's Astros vs. Phillies matchup. This will win 5.65 units if all four bets settle as wins.
My biggest bet is on Varsho to finish Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs, laying -168 to win 2 units of profit. Then, it's a 2.10 unit play on Under 8.5 to haul in another 2 units.
A 0.32 unit bet on Harper's home run prop nets just over 1 unit of profit. Then, a final NRFI/Extra Innings: No SGP warrants a 1-unit stake to win 1.09 units at plus odds.
📊 Live Astros vs. Phillies odds
The Phillies have moved from -182 to -193 in moneyline betting markets since lines were released. The run total has stayed flat at 8.5.
Eighty-five percent of public money is on the Phillies moneyline, including 94 percent of -1.5 run line wagers. Eighty-three percent of action is also coming in on Over 8.5.
📈 Astros vs. Phillies betting trends
| Astros | Statistic | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| 74-72 | W-L record | 82-64 |
| 75-71 | Run line record | 62-84 |
| 73-64-9 | O/U record | 66-71-9 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 4.55 | Team ERA | 4.00 |
| .241 | Team batting avg. | .243 |
| .725 | OPS | .714 |
🚑 Astros vs. Phillies injuries
📺 How to watch Astros vs. Phillies
- Date: Thursday, Sept. 10
- First pitch: 1:05 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Astros starter: Cristian Javier (2-5, 5.98 ERA)
- Phillies starter: Zack Wheeler (12-5, 3.23 ERA)
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