US Open Predictions 2026: Women's Semifinal Picks, Best Bets at Flushing Meadows

One could not have asked for a more star-studded final four at the US Open on the women's side, with all top four seeds advancing to the semifinals at the Major for the first time since 1975, and my US Open Women’s Semifinal best bets include my top play from each of the two matches.

Our US Open picks which began on Monday have endured three straight profitable days (+0.31, +2.15, and +1.31 units). Today, I look for big matches from the top two seeds in No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and No. 2 Elena Rybakina while opposing the two American women left in the field.

🎾 US Open Women's Semifinal predictions 

For more tennis coverage, see more sports picks and betting analysis.

Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.93 units

🎯 Aryna Sabalenka Over 12.5 games won vs. Jessica Pegula (-110) 

Aryna Sabalenka’s streak of 99 straight weeks of being ranked No. 1 ended with Elena Rybakina reaching the semifinal, but it’s another streak that matters more at this point which she can draw confidence from.

Sabalenka has now reached the semifinals or better at nine consecutive hard court Majors, joining Martina Hingis, Steffi Graf, and Chris Evert as the only women to accomplish that feat. 

For the No. 1 seed to stay Under this projected total, it would likely mean Pegula beats her for the fifth time in 14 tries overall and ends her two-match losing streak in the last two years at the US Open. Sabalenka beat Pegula in the finals at Flushing Meadows in 2024 and the semifinals in 2025, winning 14 and 16 games, respectively.

Instead of backing Sabalenka’s -190 moneyline odds, which carry a 65.52% implied probability, the familiarity Pegula has with Sabalenka has me tentative in believing she wins outright. But there is too much value with this prop, especially since Sabalenka has won 10 consecutive tiebreakers, which puts a set with winning seven games in play.

The Over on number of games is also 16-1 in Pegula’s last 17 WTA semifinal matches, and more games means more chances of this wager cashing.

Time: 7 p.m. ET

🎯 Elena Rybakina ML vs. Coco Gauff (+102) 

Coco Gauff made it look easy through her first four US Open wins, never dropping a set and only losing more than four games in a set once. But Gauff looked shaky, having to survive two match points against Mirra Andreeva, an opponent she is now a perfect 6-0 against head-to-head.

One could argue the draw broke well for Gauff as she faced teenagers in back-to-back matches before this point. But while Gauff hasn't lost to a teenager at a Grand Slam (8-0 record), the soon-to-be world No. 1 will face many more issues than the previous youngsters the American has beaten.

Elena Rybakina has certainly made things look much easier than Gauff this year, as the American's last match was her 27th three-set match this calendar year. Gauff also had no business beating Andreeva while committing double the number of unforced errors as winners before Andreeva unraveled late in the third set.

Rybakina won six more games than Gauff in a three-set victory in Toronto while having her serve broken only once. She won the first hard-court Major of the season at the Australian Open and has the big serve and the power to win another.

Time: 8:30 p.m. ET