MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Today, September 10
The MLB has a condensed five-game schedule on Thursday's slate. However, there are a few high-value matchups I'm targeting for my home run predictions today.
Bryce Harper leads off my MLB home run picks on today's betting card. The Phillies' slugger has gone yard in 12 of 14 games at Citizens Bank Park against right-handed pitching, which he'll face against the Astros this afternoon.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Sept. 10
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (+320 via bet365) | 0.32u β 1.02u | Harper has hit a home run in 14 games at Citizens Bank Park, including 12 against right-handed pitchers. |
| Joc Pederson (+500 via Caesars) | 0.25u β 1.25u | All 10 of Pederson's home runs on the road have happened against right-handed pitching. |
| Munetaka Murakami (+375 via bet365) | 0.27u β 1.01u | Murakami's hit 25 of 30 home runs against right-handed pitching. |
Total wagered: 0.84 units | Max profit: 3.28 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Bryce Harper (+320)
Citizens Bank Park is known for its favorable dimensions for batters, especially left-handed hitters. This builds the case for Harper, who has also mashed 12 of his 14 home runs at home against right-handed pitching.
Cristian Javier draws the start for the Astros. He's surrendered five home runs across his last five starts. Javier is also ranked 18th in barrel percentage (9.4), setting Harper up to end his home run slump.
Go to bet365 and bet on Harper's home run prop at +320 odds.
- Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Ideal Forecast
The forecast calls for winds blowing out into right-center field at 9.2 mph at Citizens Bank Park today.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Joc Pederson (+500)
The Rangers have seen steady production at the plate from Joc Pederson this season. He has 10 of his 19 home runs on the road, with all 10 coming against right-handed pitching.
Pederson has just one home run this month. However, he'll face Logan Gilbert to start today's matchup, who just allowed 4 home runs in his last start.
T-Mobile Park is notoriously a pitcher's ballpark. However, Pederson ranks 93rd in hard-hit percentage (50.6) in 2026, so he's got plenty of power to find the bleachers.
Head to Caesars to bet on Pederson to hit a home run at +500 odds.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Munetaka Murakami (+375)
Munetaka Murakami has been crushing baseballs at the plate for the White Sox all season. The Japanese hitter has 2 home runs in his last 4 starts, including one against the Pirates last night.
Amongst his 30 home runs in 2026, 25 have been against right-handed pitchers. Jared Jones is an ideal matchup for Murakami's left-handed hitting. Murakami has hit 14 of 17 home runs at Rate Park against righties as well.
Still not convinced? Murakami maxes out in barrel percentage (19.3) and hard-hit rate (57.5) in the 100th percentile.
Go to bet365 for the best line on Murakami's home run prop at +375 odds.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Bryce Harper (+320)
- Joc Pederson(+425)
- Munetaka Murakami (+375)
Best odds: +10374 via bet365 (0.10u -> 10.37u)
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