Phillies vs. Dodgers Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 17
Two National League titans will clash once more, and we're diving in with our Phillies vs. Dodgers prediction
The two teams sit atop the World Series odds, though the Phillies have now leapfrogged the Dodgers after taking the first two games in this series, and Philly has become the narrow favorite. Philadelphia will go for the sweep tonight, though Los Angeles is the -145 betting odds favorite. First pitch is slated for 10:10 p.m. ET from Dodger Stadium (MLB Network).
For my Phillies vs. Dodgers best bets as part of our MLB picks, I'm eying the Over on 7.5 runs (-120) and Mookie Betts going Over 1.5 total bases (+111).
⚾ Phillies vs. Dodgers prediction
MLB expert picks odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Dodgers (-145 via Ceasars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Dodgers -1.5 (+150 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-120 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📝 Phillies vs. Dodgers preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
⬆️ Over 7.5 (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Yes, Blake Snell is scary and seems to chuckle heartily at your Over bet when he's involved.
The Dodgers' starting pitcher tonight has posted a sparkling 2.79 ERA across his nine starts, seven of which have come from early August onward when he returned from injury. That includes three post-injury shutouts, though he's just one start removed from a five-run blowup against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates.
However, Snell hands the ball off to an ailing bullpen that ranks 20th leaguewide with its 4.30 ERA when he departs. The Dodgers' relievers have also allowed the fourth-most homers.
That weakness gives us an opportunity to get across the line here, but we're leaning on Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo to do much of the lifting to clear this low number. Luzardo has produced a fine season overall, especially in terms of strikeouts with a rate that sits in the 85th percentile.
But that strength won't play as well tonight against a Dodgers lineup that ranks mid-pack in strikeouts. He's also given up three-plus earned runs in half of his starts since the beginning of August, and although there are plenty of lefties in the Dodgers' order for the southpaw to match up well against, there's one sizzling righty in particular who's set to pounce. More on him below, but for now know that Luzardo's OPS allowed jumps from .464 against lefties to .730 when facing a righty.
Making a $10 play at these -120 betting odds from Caesars for your Phillies vs. Dodgers prediction would result in an $8.33 payout if the Over on 7.5 runs hits. That comes with an implied probability of 54.55%.
💰 Best Phillies vs. Dodgers player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Mookie Bets Over 1.5 total bases (+111) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The real Betts has finally arrived this season.
The eight-time All-Star put up an OPS of just .633 in June, and an even more dreadful .586 during July. Now he's been soaring in the opposite direction with a 1.129 throughout September so far. That includes seven multi-hit games, 10 extra-base hits, and five home runs.
He went deep once already in this series too. Betts has been hunting heat while posting a .327 batting average and slugging .430 against four-seamers, a pitch Luzardo throws the most at 34.5% of the time. Betts is also among the league's best at strikeout avoidance while sitting in the top 2%, according to Baseball Savant.
A $10 bet on Betts going Over 1.5 total bases for one of your Phillies vs. Dodgers player props at these appealing odds from Draftkings would lead to an $11.10 profit on an implied probability of 47.39%. Be sure to make this wager at DraftKings too, as it provides a slightly better price than Caesars (+105) and BetMGM (+100).
📊 Phillies vs. Dodgers odds: Sept. 17
MLB odds update live in real time.
📈 Phillies vs. Dodgers betting odds analysis
There's been little moneyline movement so far at BetMGM, though the total briefly went from 8 to 8.5 and then back down early this morning.
The Dodgers are getting more moneyline action while generating 59% of the attention, and the Over is receiving an overwhelming amount of support at 63%.
🔢 Phillies vs. Dodgers stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Phillies (91-61) | Statistic (per game) | Dodgers (84-67) |
|---|---|---|
| 4.9 | Runs | 5.1 |
| 8.9 | Hits | 8.6 |
| .260 | AVG | .254 |
| .433 | SLG | .440 |
| .764 | OPS | .770 |
| 3.85 | ERA | 4.08 |
| 9.21 | K/9 | 9.20 |
| 2.8 | BB/9 | 3.5 |
| 1.1 | HR/9 | 1.1 |
🚑 Phillies vs. Dodgers injuries
📺 Phillies vs. Dodgers game info
- When: Wednesday, Sept. 17
- First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where: Dodger Stadium
- How to watch: MLB Network
❓ Phillies vs. Dodgers FAQs
Who is favored to win Phillies vs. Dodgers?
The Dodgers are the moneyline favorites while getting betting odds of -145 at Caesars. The Phillies are the +125 underdog.
What is the run line for Phillies vs. Dodgers?
The Dodgers are favored on the run line while receiving +150 betting odds at BetMGM. The Phillies are getting -169 to cover +1.5 at bet365.
What is the Over/Under for Phillies vs. Dodgers?
The total varies between 7.5 and 8 at the best sports betting sites. Over bettors should take the 7.5 total, which is receiving -120 betting odds at Caesars. Under bettors should favor the 8 total, and the best betting odds are found through Caesars at -115.
What are the best bets for Phillies vs. Dodgers?
We're siding with the Over on 7.5 runs (-120 via Caesars), and Mookie Betts going Over 1.5 total bases (+111 via DraftKings).
When is the Phillies vs. Dodgers game?
First pitch for the final game of this Phillies vs. Dodgers series is slated for 10:10 p.m. ET from Dodgers Stadium on MLB Network.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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