Phillies vs. Mets MLB Picks: Can Philadelphia Close New York's Dominant Division Lead?

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets open up a three-game set on Friday at Citi Field, with the latter running away with the NL East early in the season. Check out our Phillies-Mets picks.

Though these are the top two teams in the NL East (the Atlanta Braves are tied for second with the Phillies), the division race hasn't been particularly close thus far. The Mets are 7.5 games up on the Phillies, and they enter Friday's affair leading the season series 6-3.

New York has been dominant in the early goings of the 2022 campaign. Mets hitters rank second in batting average, third in WAR, and fourth in wRC+. Meanwhile, despite Max Scherzer and Tylor Megill hitting the injured list and Jacob deGrom still out with a shoulder injury, New York's pitching is 10th in the majors in WAR.

On the other hand, a Phillies team that made numerous high-profile offseason moves is underperforming. Philadelphia hitters rank 14th in wRC+ and 16th in WAR. Outfielders Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos own a 105 wRC+ and 101 wRC+, respectively, both just above league average. The two sluggers have also combined to accrue just 0.6 WAR.

Friday's pitching matchup features a young left-hander getting the call for the visitors, as he goes up against one of the most consistent pitchers of the last decade.

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Friday’s game between the Phillies and Mets (odds via BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Phillies vs. Mets Game Info

Date: Friday, May 27, 7:10 p.m. ETTV: WPIX, NBC Sports Philadelphia, MLB NetworkLocation: Citi Field, Flushing, NYWeather: 84 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph out to left field

Phillies vs. Mets Odds

Phillies vs. Mets Odds Analysis

The Mets opened at -135 on the Moneyline but have been bet all the way down to -155 at most sportsbooks. New York is drawing 80% of the cash on 75% of the tickets. For those looking to bet on the underdogs, you can get the Phillies at +135 via DraftKings.

The total opened at 8 but has been bet up to 8.5 at various sportsbooks following the news that Philadelphia is set to call up young southpaw Bailey Falter to make his second start this season. DraftKings is offering Over 8 at -110, while FanDuel and BetMGM have Under 8.5 at -115.

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Phillies vs. Mets Projected Pitchers

LHP Bailey Falter (0-1, 3.75 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco (4-1, 3.50 ERA, 1.14 WHIP)

Falter has made five appearances for the Phillies this season, with his last time out serving as his first start of the campaign. He mostly held the Seattle Mariners in check in that one, going 4 2/3 innings, giving up one earned run on five hits. He faced the Mets as a reliever on April 13. He went two innings, giving up one earned run on just one hit and one walk.

Opposing Falter will be one of baseball's most underrated starting pitchers. The 35-year-old Carrasco was a dominant force for the majority of his 11-season run with the Cleveland Guardians, and he's rebounded well this year in his second campaign with the Mets following a shaky and injury-plagued 2021. The right-hander owns the 13th-best swinging-strike rate among qualified starting pitchers in the majors, and his walk rate is in the 93rd percentile this season. That will play well against a Phillies lineup that ranks ninth-worst in swinging-strike rate and in the bottom half of the league in walk rate.

Phillies vs. Mets Picks

Moneyline: Mets (-154 via BetMGM) ????Over/Under: Over 8 (-110 via DraftKings) ???Prop bet: Brandon Nimmo to record a hit + score a run (+108 via FanDuel) ????

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Phillies vs. Mets ML Pick

Mets (-154)

The Mets had Thursday off while the Phillies closed out their series in Atlanta. Now, Philadelphia travels to Citi Field with a young starting pitcher to take on the division leader.

New York is playing quality baseball both at home and on the road, with their plus-45 run differential serving as the joint-fourth-best mark in the majors. Despite losing two of three games in San Francisco against the Giants, the Mets showed in the second game of the series how dangerous their offense can be when they scored seven runs in the eighth inning to temporarily erase the Giants' lead.

This bet mostly comes down to the pitching matchup, as Carrasco serves as the much safer option. The veteran has been especially good at home this season, with a 2.16 ERA and 1.04 WHIP through 25 innings.

With a number of Phillies bats going cold over the last two weeks - Castellanos chief among them with a .446 OPS in that time - and an inexperienced pitcher on the mound for the visitors, New York should open up this crucial homestand with a straightforward victory.

Phillies vs. Mets O/U Pick

Over 8 (-110)

Citi Field is just around league average in terms of Statcast's park factor, so this is more about who's on the mound for the Phillies and how Falter's limited pitch count could play a role.

Philadelphia was fortunate enough to get 8 1/3 innings from starter Aaron Nola on Thursday, giving the bullpen a reprieve after some heavy lifting in the previous two contests. Manager Joe Girardi will likely call on his relievers to carry the load again on Friday, as Falter topped out at 65 pitches in his previous start against Seattle. With the way the Mets work the count and put together tough at-bats, the southpaw will be lucky to get through four innings in New York.

The Phillies' bullpen isn't quite the travesty it was in previous years, but it's still simply average and ranks 15th with a 3.65 ERA. If the Mets can chase Falter early, they should turn the cracks in Philadelphia's 22nd-ranked bullpen into full-blown chasms and bust this game wide-open.

Phillies vs. Mets Prop Bet

Nimmo to record a hit + score a run (+108)

Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo is riding a nine-game hitting streak, during which he's scored at least one run in seven contests. He's also rocking heavy reverse splits this season, with a 1.037 OPS against left-handed pitchers vs. just .755 against righties.

The Mets' leadoff man owns a top-20 OBP and is 13th in the majors in runs scored. His early season batted-ball data is the best of his career, and he should take advantage of a plus-matchup in this one to set the table for Pete Alonso (second in MLB in RBI) and Francisco Lindor (ninth in MLB in RBI) to drive him in.

Where to Bet on Phillies-Mets Picks

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Phillies-Mets picks made 5/27/2022 at 10:45 a.m. ET.