Padres vs. Mets Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 18
The San Diego Padres and New York Mets look for a much-needed win to improve their playoff positioning, and I break down the tilt with my Padres vs. Mets prediction. First pitch from Citi Field in Queens is set for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLBN).
New York is the -135 betting favorite, but after Mets rookie Jonah Tong’s blowup in his last start, I am making a play on the total with my MLB picks as my most confident play.
While doubling down on the Over, I add to my Fernando Tatis Jr. home run predictions a Mets slugger to score a run, given the elite protection he has received in the lineup of late.
⚾ Padres vs. Mets prediction
MLB expert picks for Thursday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Padres (+116 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Padres +1.5 (-170 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-128 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
📝 Padres vs. Mets preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
⬆️ Over 8.5 (-128) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
It will be interesting to see how Tong responds to the worst outing of his young career. Tong retired just two batters while allowing six runs in a home loss to the Texas Rangers last week, and another rocky start could put his role on the postseason roster in jeopardy.
Through three starts and 11 ⅔ innings, Tong has allowed a .370 OBA and 1.229 OPS to right-handed batters. That spells doom when facing San Diego’s right-handed dominant lineup with stars Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado looking to do damage.
Up to yesterday, the Padres had four batters (min. 12 AB), including Tatis, batting better than .300 over the last seven days.
Despite their recent struggles, the Mets still entered yesterday with an MLB-best 151 wRC+ and a top-two slugging percentage and OPS in home games since August 24, spanning 11 games. The Over has cashed in each of New York’s last five games against NL opponents, and it should do its part to help cash my Padres vs. Mets best bet.
I am backing these steeper -128 odds, which carry a 56.14% implied probability at FanDuel. A $10 winning wager at the -128 odds would net $7.81 in profits.
💰 Best Padres vs. Mets player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Juan Soto Over 0.5 runs (-137) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over the weekend, Juan Soto became one of three players in MLB history to record 40-plus home runs, 30 or more stolen bases, and 115-plus walks in a single season.
And with him hitting in between Francisco Lindor (home run in two of the last three home games against the Padres) and Pete Alonso (home run in three straight), the Mets slugger should continue to see plenty of pitches to hit.
Soto is one of three Mets who have faced Padres righty Randy Vasquez in their careers, and he is the only one who has gotten a hit off him. That lone hit was a solo home run, so Soto has a great chance of plating himself while not needing to rely on Alonso’s or Brandon Nimmo’s hot bats.
Soto’s 115 runs rank third in the majors, and he has crossed the plate at least once in three of the last four games and five of the previous seven.
That makes the 57.81% implied probability for this wager (which goes as high as 61.39%) a great value, and a $10 winning wager through DraftKings’ -137 odds would return $7.30 in profits.
📊 Padres vs. Mets odds: Sept. 18
MLB odds update live in real time.
📈 Padres vs. Mets betting odds analysis
After New York opened as the -125 betting favorite, its line ballooned to -135 or higher overnight despite attracting just 42% of the early wagers.
That suggests the sharps are behind the Mets, and this sets up as a “pros vs. joes” game with the public likely more interested in San Diego after yesterday’s convincing win.
With FanDuel being the only one of the best sports betting apps offering a total of 8.5 runs, I expect it to align with the rest of the market sooner or later at 9.0, especially given that the Over at the smaller number is juiced to -128.
🔢 Padres vs. Mets stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Padres (83-69) | Statistic (per game) | Mets (78-74) |
|---|---|---|
| 4.26 | Runs | 4.72 |
| 8.40 | Hits | 8.39 |
| .251 | AVG | .250 |
| .389 | SLG | .428 |
| .710 | OPS | .755 |
| 3.60 | ERA | 4.01 |
| 8.93 | K/9 | 8.71 |
| 3.22 | BB/9 | 3.50 |
| 1.09 | HR/9 | 0.91 |
🚑 Padres vs. Mets injuries
📺 Padres vs. Mets game info
- When: Thursday, Sept. 18
- First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
- Where: Citi Field (Queens, N.Y.)
- How to watch: MLBN
❓ Padres vs. Mets FAQs
Who is favored to win Padres vs. Mets?
The Mets are the -135 betting favorite to beat the Padres at home on Thursday.
What is the run line for Padres vs. Mets?
New York’s -1.5 odds range from +140 to +150, while San Diego’s +1.5 odds are at -181 on the high end of the market.
What is the Over/Under for Padres vs. Mets?
The O/U is at 9.0 runs at most best sports betting apps, and it’s juiced to -105 to the Over and -115 to the Under.
What are the best bets for Padres vs. Mets?
My Padres vs. Mets best bets back the Over of 8.5 runs (-128) and for Juan Soto Over 0.5 runs scored (-137).
When is the Padres vs. Mets game?
The Padres vs. Mets first pitch is set for 1:10 p.m. ET, airing on MLB Network.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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