Padres vs. Mets Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 17
The New York Mets hope to continue to cling to the final spot in the NL playoff picture when they host the San Diego Padres at 7:10 p.m. ET tonight at Citi Field. However, my Padres vs. Mets prediction expects San Diego to earn a road win over New York.
After winning the series opener, the Mets are -125 home betting favorites while leading the final NL wild-card spot by 1.5 games. With Nick Pivetta on the bump, I’ll take the plus-money price on the Padres’ moneyline and the Under on his runs prop for Wednesday’s MLB picks.
⚾ Padres vs. Mets prediction
MLB expert picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Padres ML (+105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Padres -1.5 (+170 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
📝 Padres vs. Mets preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
🔥 Padres ML (+105) ⭐⭐⭐
I make the Padres short favorites against the Mets, and so do projections. Ballpark Pal’s model projects a 55% chance of victory for San Diego, suggesting a fair price of -122. At +105, a $10 wager generates a $10.50 profit.
Nick Pivetta will get the nod for San Diego, giving the visitors an advantage in Wednesday’s battle. He’s 13-5 with a 2.73 ERA, allowing two earned runs or fewer in six straight starts. He tossed seven shutout innings against the Cincinnati Reds last time out.
The Mets have won two in a row since their eight-game losing skid, but it’s worth noting they haven’t won more than two straight contests since late August. I’ll fade this team as a betting favorite against a better team.
💰 Best Padres vs. Mets player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬇️ Nick Pivetta Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-145) ⭐⭐⭐
As mentioned above, Pivetta has been excellent at limiting runs this season, especially of late. He’s only had one start where he allowed more than two earned runs since June 25. His ERA ranks eighth in the majors.
I say all that to explain that it’s worth paying the -145 vig for this Under. A $10 bet would produce a $6.90 payout.
📊 Padres vs. Mets odds: Sept. 17
MLB odds update live in real time.
📈 Padres vs. Mets betting odds analysis
The Mets started as the -115 betting favorite, but I’d expect there to be a line movement with 63% of the wagers on the Padres. The total opened at a flat eight, but has dropped even though 64% of bets have been on the Over thus far.
🔢 Padres vs. Mets stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Padres (82-69) | Statistic (per game) | Mets (78-73) |
|---|---|---|
| 4.26 | Runs | 4.72 |
| 8.4 | Hits | 8.4 |
| .251 | AVG | .250 |
| .389 | SLG | .428 |
| .709 | OPS | .755 |
| 3.67 | ERA | 4.01 |
| 8.9 | K/9 | 8.7 |
| 3.3 | BB/9 | 3.6 |
| 1.1 | HR/9 | 0.9 |
🚑 Padres vs. Mets injuries
📺 Padres vs. Mets game info
- When: Wednesday, Sept. 17
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where: Citi Field (Queens, N.Y.)
- How to watch: Local TV
❓ Padres vs. Mets FAQs
Who is favored to win Padres vs. Mets?
The Mets are the -125 betting favorite to defeat the Padres on Wednesday.
What is the run line for Padres vs. Mets?
San Diego is -1.5 on the run line, with a plus-money price to win by multiple runs.
What is the Over/Under for Padres vs. Mets?
The total for Wednesday’s Padres-Mets matchup is 7.5.
What are the best bets for Padres vs. Mets?
My best bets for Padres vs. Mets are San Diego ML and Nick Pivetta Under 2.5 runs allowed.
When is the Padres vs. Mets game?
First pitch for Padres vs. Mets is 7:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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