Padres vs. Mets MLB Picks: New York Avoids Sweep

Mike Spector

Last Updated: July 24, 2022 3:42 AM EDT • 2 min 53 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

NEW YORK, NY - JULY 23: Manny Machado #13 of the San Diego Padres tags out Pete Alonso #20 of the New York Mets during the second inning at Citi Field on July 23, 2022 in New York City. Adam Hunger/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Adam Hunger / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The San Diego Padres and New York Mets meet in the finale of a three-game series at Citi Field in what could potentially be a National League playoff preview. We have highlighted the odds, line movement, and best picks for Sunday's Padres-Mets clash.

San Diego has won a pair of pitcher's duels by a combined score of 6-2 through the first two games of this series and has already secured itself as the first National League team (third team overall) to win a road series against New York.

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Sunday's game between the Padres and Mets (odds via BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Padres vs. Mets Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, July 24, 7 p.m. ETLocation: Citi Field, Queens, NYWeather: 94 degrees, 21% chance of precipitation, wind SSW 15 mph

Padres vs. Mets Odds

Padres vs. Mets Odds Analysis

The Mets range from -115 moneyline favorites at BetMGM and DraftKings to -121 at PointsBet. So far, the Padres have been popular underdogs, as 44% of the tickets but 75% of the cash have backed San Diego's moneyline odds.

DraftKings' offered total of eight runs makes it the only sportsbook without a total of 7.5 for this contest. As of early Sunday morning, the Under had attracted 67% of the bets and 74% of the cash.

Padres vs. Mets Projected Pitchers

Joe Musgrove (8-2, 2.42 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) vs. Carlos Carrasco (10-4, 4.27 ERA, 1.33 WHIP)

Joe Musgrove's solid first half of the season resulted in his first All-Star nomination in his seven-year career. Musgrove is on pace to finish over .500 for the second time, and his ERA+, WHIP, and FIP are all career-bests.

Carlos Carrasco has already secured the fifth double-digit win total of his career and first since 2018. It followed an injury-ridden string of three years where he went just 10-16 and never threw more than 80 innings. Carrasco has won two of his previous three starts.

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Padres vs. Mets Picks

Mets (-115 via BetMGM) ??Under 8 (-115 via DraftKings) ????Carlos Carrasco 5+ Ks/Mets to win (+155 via FanDuel) ???

Padres vs. Mets ML Pick

Mets ML (-115)

The Mets enter this series finale on a three-game losing streak. Another loss Sunday would result in their first four-game losing streak of the season and first home sweep. Avoiding those dubious distinctions when facing an All-Star pitcher will not be easy, but Musgrove has shown vulnerability over his previous four starts. He is 0-2 with a 5.04 ERA and does not come into this start entirely rested as he threw an inning in the All-Star Game.

https://twitter.com/TalkingFriars/status/1549562620226637825?s=20&t=0ifBviT-Br5rF1UKk41_zg

Musgrove's 3.17 xERA suggests he has been fortunate to have the numbers he does to this point. He has allowed three earned runs in three of his last four starts, which is something he had not done once through the first 13 starts of the season.

The Mets are one of three National League teams at least 11 games over .500 at home, and we are not about to back them getting swept.

Padres vs. Mets O/U Pick

Under 8 (-115)

Musgrove's recent slide, coupled with Carrasco's 5.66 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over his final seven starts before the All-Star break, does not make it easy to back the Under, but these two teams have shown nothing through the first two games that suggest a slugfest will break out.

San Diego and New York are a combined 1-for-26 with RISP so far this series, and the Mets, in particular, have just two combined extra-base hits in the first two games. Regarding Carrasco's struggles, we expect him to follow suit with the rest of a pitching staff with a league-best 2.40 ERA and 2.92 xFIP in July.

Padres vs. Mets Player Prop

Carrasco 5+ Ks/Mets to win (+155)

This parlay is a part of FanDuel's "Player Performance Doubles" offerings. It caught our eye, given our lean to New York's moneyline and our liking the Under to cash.

Carrasco ranks in the 71st percentile in whiff rate and 97th percentile in chase rate, per Statcast, which bodes well for his chances to rack up strikeouts against the Padres. Carrasco has averaged 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings this year, so as long as he throws as least five innings, he should be on pace to hit this strikeout total.

Where to Bet on Padres vs. Mets

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook Caesars Sportsbook DraftKings Sportsbook PointsBet BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Padres-Mets picks made 7/24/2022 at 7:50 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Mike Spector

I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.