Nationals vs. Padres MLB Picks: Back Home Team in Rematch of Weekend Set
The Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres meet again for their second series in a week. This time the Nats head to Petco Park for a four-game series in San Diego. Here’s our Nationals-Padres picks.
Thursday night’s matchup is a rematch from last Saturday between Anibal Sanchez and Yu Darvish in DC. Though it was the only win in the three-game series for the Nationals, Sanchez did not receive a decision in his start.
The Padres are 5-5 in their last 10 games and beginning to pick up steam once again, as they’ve outscored opponents by 17.6 runs. The Nationals have been outscored by 28 runs in their last 10, however, they’re 27-9 when they score at least five runs in a game.
Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Thursday night’s game between the Nationals and Padres (odds via FanDuel, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 scale).
Nationals vs. Padres Game Info
Date/Time: Thursday, Aug. 18, 9:40 p.m. ET
Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Weather: 70 degrees, 2% chance of precipitation, 3-mph wind
Nationals vs. Padres Odds Analysis
The Padres are the heavy moneyline favorites in this game, ranging from -375 at BetMGM to -390 at FanDuel.
The total is set at 8 at all major sportsbooks.
Nationals vs. Padres Projected Pitchers
Anibal Sanchez (0-5, 7.20 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) vs. Yu Darvish (10-6,3.40 ERA, 1.01 WHIP)
It’s been a tough season for Sanchez. The 38-year-old joined the Nationals on a minor-league contract this year and has pitched just 30 innings in six starts for Washington, and has yet to earn a win.
Sanchez has given up 24 earned runs on 34 hits with 14 walks and 22 strikeouts. This year, batters are hitting a hefty .286 against him.
In his most recent start versus the Padres, he went five innings allowing six hits, three earned runs, three walks, and four strikeouts, though he did not get a decision in what was ultimately a 4-3 win for Washington.
Darvish has been solid this season for the Padres. In his last 12 starts, he’s 6-3 with a 2.93 ERA in 80 innings pitched, He’s gone at least six innings in his last 15 starts. He’s a reliable pitcher in the sense you can depend on him to grind and give you a quality start.
That being said, Darvish has struggled a bit versus the Nationals in his career. He’s 1-1 with a 5.29 ERA in his career against Washington, but that’s only in three starts. On Saturday, he went six innings, allowing seven hits and four earned runs with one walk, but he did strike out nine batters.
Don't expect Darvish to falter as much facing the Nationals a second time in a week, especially at home.
Nationals vs. Padres Picks
Nationals vs. Padres ML Pick
Padres -1.5 (-167)
No MLB team is more heavily favored on the moneyline today than the Padres. The Padres have the eighth best OBP in MLB at .320 and have the 16th-best batting average with a .243. The Nationals are surprisingly middle of the pack, ranking 16th in OBP with a .315 and are actually ahead of the Padres in BA with a season .248.
This Padres lineup is built to chip away at pitchers like Sanchez. San Diego is tied for eighth in runs in the league with 537, and that’s without the recent addition of Juan Soto, who’s regarded as one of the best hitters in the game for a reason.
This Padres lineup is more than capable of capitalizing on Sanchez and Washington’s bullpen, and especially given the fact this is the same pitching matchup they just saw Saturday and took their one loss to in the three-game series in Washington, I can’t see that happening again.
Nationals vs. Padres O/U Pick
Over 8 (-108)
The Over/Under in this matchup really could go either way, but seeing as the game was 4-3 on Saturday with these two starters on the mound, I’ll take the Over this time around.
The Nationals have hit the Over 56% of the time this season as the road team. Though the sample size is small, they do have success against Darvish and his 5.29 ERA versus Washington.
Add onto the fact the Padres' offense is finally finding a groove with Soto, Ha-Seong Kim is 12-for-35 over his last 10 games, and Manny Machado has been doing Manny Machado things all year long, I’m going with over 8 runs tonight.
Nationals vs. Padres Prop Pick
Voit to hit a home run (+270)
Luke Voit was the one bright spot of the Nationals’ trade deadline. He leads Washington in home runs with 16 homers and is slugging .417.
In 13 games with the Nats, he’s hit three home runs and slugged .426. Though he’s a rather average hitter, when he’s able to make contact, he hits bombs.
Where to bet on Nationals vs. Padres Bets
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Nationals-Padres picks from 8/18/2022 at 10:29 a.m. ET.
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