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Microbetting: MLB Rule Changes

Jon Metler

Last Updated: March 29, 2023 4:39 PM EDT • 3 min 21 sec read.

Max Scherzer of the New York Mets pitches during the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field. Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images via AFP.

There are a number of new rules in place for MLB season, which may lead to some players’ pricing being incorrect early in the season. With the new rules that MLB has implemented, Jon Metler examines how you should approach microbetting. 

There will be no defensive shifts, bigger bases, and a pitch clock. It's anticipated that the rule changes made by MLB in the offseason will wreak havoc on the betting lines early in the year and you should be attempting to find ways to take advantage of them. 

Here are some of my thoughts on how I would approach microbetting under the new MLB rules. 

What is microbetting?

Microbetting involves betting on markets that were not available before the game began and that will be resolved quickly. This is a form of in-game wagering that is intended to provide instant gratification (and you know how bettors love their instant gratification.) 

For example, you might decide to wager on the outcome of the next at-bat in a baseball game. This bet doesn't require you to wait nine innings to see if it's a winner – it's completed within a few minutes, enabling you to re-invest your winnings if you so choose.  

MLB rule changes

Pitch clock

When the bases are empty, pitchers have 15 seconds to throw the pitch and 20 seconds once runners are on base. In the event that they don't, a ball is called.

At the same time, hitters must face the pitcher by eight seconds or they'll be given a strike automatically.

Defensive shifts eliminated

It's required that teams have at least two infielders on either side of second base, with all four positioned on the infield dirt at the beginning of each pitch. It's not permitted for infielders to switch positions unless a substitution is made.

Bigger bases

The size of the first, second, and third base has been increased from 15 square inches to 18 square inches. The distances between home plate and first base and third base and home plate have been shortened by three inches. In contrast, the distance is 4.5 inches closer between first base and second base, and between second base and third base. 

How this changes microbetting for MLB

Microbetting is based on an algorithm that sportsbooks use in conjunction with an extensive historical database. This algorithm generates betting lines based on projection models and analytics. Sportsbooks may experience difficulties while pricing these markets early in the season due to the lack of data related to the new rules. 

Finding rogue prices is your main advantage in sports betting and you may be able to catch sportsbooks overcorrecting or not reacting fast enough to these new rules. For example, a sportsbook might have adjusted Justin Verlander's markets based on the theory that he will tire faster due to the pitch clock, but Verlander is not affected by it. There may be an error in his micro bets that you can exploit.

The flip side to that is that the same algorithm could be applied to Max Scherzer, however, it may not be strong enough, since the pitch clock is significantly affecting his ability to pitch. In this instance, the algorithm wouldn't be adjusting fast enough, resulting in an error in Scherzer's odds. As a sports bettor, an error in the number is the dream scenario for winning units.

There's no doubt that analytics can watch 30 teams better than you can, but you can watch one team better than analytics. I recommend that you watch your favorite team and pay attention to the actual impacts of the new rules on them. Rather than painting the whole picture with a broad brush, I would focus on a few players. Perhaps the shift isn't leading to more singles for Corey Seager, but the algorithm thought it would. 

In order to achieve long-term success in sports betting, it's important to analyze the numbers, find value in the odds, and attack those rogue prices. Watch the pricing and what's happening to each individual player under the new rules. If the sportsbook algorithm is not properly adjusting fast enough, this will present you with many opportunities as a bettor.

Ensure that you check with each individual sportsbook to determine how they're adjusting to the new rules. It's possible that one sportsbook has discovered how to adjust Seager properly, while another has not. 

It's also important to remember that sportsbooks are required to provide pricing for every individual player for every single team. While they have strong numbers, they're constantly playing defense against people who are able to lock in on something more specific than they are. It's not necessary to create betting numbers for every team. You can dig deeper into just the New York Yankees and beat the sportsbooks on how they price their players.

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Written By:
Jon Metler
Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.