Monday's MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Will Greene Stifle Red-Hot Phillies?
We're offering the best MLB player props and expert picks from the most competitive MLB odds for Monday's action, with 11 games on the docket.
Following an exciting weekend of baseball, it's a relatively light schedule with eight teams enjoying Monday off.
The action begins at 1:05 p.m. ET when the Oakland Athletics visit MLB MVP odds favorite Juan Soto and the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium.
The next pair of contests start at 6:40 p.m. ET, with the red-hot Philadelphia Phillies visiting the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park, and the Milwaukee Brewers facing the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park.
The evening concludes with a battle in The Bay, as the New York Mets visit the San Francisco Giants. First pitch from Oracle Park is expected for 9:45 p.m. ET.
Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Monday (MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Monday’s MLB expert picks
- Hunter Greene Under 7.5 strikeouts (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Joe Ross Under 5.5 strikeouts (-130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Brandon Pfaadt Under 5.5 strikeouts (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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MLB player props
Hunter Greene Under 7.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-128) | Under 7.5 (-142) | Under 7.5 (-125) |
Game info: Phillies vs. Reds | Moneyline: Phillies (-120 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (-105)/Under 8.5 (-115) via Betway | Start time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Cincinnati Reds right-hander Hunter Greene is a certified strikeout machine. He's managed 12.05 strikeouts per nine innings for his career and has cranked it up a notch this season with 13.06 K/9. However, those numbers don't tell the entire story, as Greene has also failed to last five innings in half of his starts during 2024.
That's bad news against a Philadelphia Phillies team starting to find its groove. The Phillies are right around the middle of the pack this season in strikeout rate, and they've scored at least seven runs in four straight games.
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Greene's projection on Monday is around a full strikeout less than the eight he'd need to go Over this total. Based on that projection of 6.94, we're getting a 16% positive expected value on this bet via FanDuel's -110 odds.
As you can see, most of our best sports betting sites are already far shorter, and Pinnacle - which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry - already has its Under priced at -168 after opening at -110.
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel
Joe Ross Under 5.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 5.5 (-160) | Under 5.5 (-160) | Under 5.5 (-133) | Under 5.5 (-157) | Under 5.5 (-130) |
Game info: Brewers vs. Pirates | Moneyline: Pirates (-140 via Betway) | Total: Over 7.5 (-115)/Under 7.5 (-105) via Betway | Start time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Joe Ross has endured a rocky beginning to his Milwaukee Brewers tenure. He owns a 4.91 ERA over his first three starts, with one solid appearance against the Reds sandwiched between a pair of stinkers against the Minnesota Twins (he allowed five walks over only 3 2/3) and San Diego Padres (he gave up six earned runs on nine hits across 4 2/3). For the season, Ross has logged 14 punchouts in 14 2/3 innings.
The Pittsburgh Pirates present an interesting matchup for Ross. They strike out at the eighth-highest rate in the league, but they also walk at the third-highest. Handing out free passes has always been one of Ross' most significant issues, so the Pirates have the ability to chase him early.
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Our trusted projections support that notion, too, as Ross is expected to record only 4.26 strikeouts on Monday. That's well below the six he'd need to clear this 5.5 total, which is why we're getting better than 30% +EV through bet365's -130 odds.
A pair of our best sports betting apps are already at -160, and Pinnacle is even shorter at -181. Use our exclusive bet365 bonus code: SBRBONUS to get these odds before they disappear!
Best odds: -130 via bet365
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Brandon Pfaadt Under 5.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 5.5 (-120) | Under 5.5 (-130) | N/A | Under 5.5 (-137) | Under 5.5 (-115) |
Game info: Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals | Moneyline: Pick'em (via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (-110)/Under 8.5 (-110) via Betway | Start time: 7:45 p.m. ET
We're going back to the well with a Brandon Pfaadt Under after he went Over 5.5 on the hook last week when we made this same bet.
Despite recording six strikeouts in that start, the Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander is still sitting at only 8.75 K/9 for the season, which is right around what he managed as a rookie in 2023.
Pfaadt gets a similar matchup on Monday to the one he had last Wednesday when we bet his Under. The St. Louis Cardinals are around the league median with a 22.8% strikeout rate, while the Chicago Cubs - last week's opponents - are slightly better at 22.3%.
We're getting nearly 30% +EV through these -115 odds at bet365 based on Pfaadt's projection of 4.49 strikeouts on Monday. When we combine that with the fact that Pinnacle is already at -156 and two of our best sportsbooks are as short as -130, we see we need to act quickly before this number is gone.
Best odds: -115 via bet365
MLB player props made Monday at 8 a.m. ET.
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