Giants vs. Cubs MLB Picks: Chicago Defends Home Turf in Rubber Match
The San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs meet in a rubber match of a three-game series on Sunday Night Baseball. Read on for our Giants-Cubs MLB picks.
The Giants ended a five-game losing skid with Saturday’s 5-2 victory over the Cubs. They are now in position for their second series win in the last nine, as they have gone 1-5-2 in their last eight series.
Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Sunday’s game between the Giants and Cubs (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, Pointsbet, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Giants vs. Cubs Game Info
Date: Sunday, Sept. 11, 7:00 p.m. ET
Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Weather: 56 degrees, 24% chance of
precipitation, wind WSW 15 mph
Giants vs. Cubs Odds Analysis
Chicago’s Moneyline odds have been bet down at most sportsbooks from -120, with most having this as a virtual pick’em (-110 odds for both teams).
PointsBet is the only sportsbook with a line on the total for this game (8.0 runs), as most sportsbooks wait for a clearer indication of which way the wind will blow at Wrigley Field before posting a number.
As of early Sunday morning, there were no betting splits to report, given the lines had not been public for long.
Giants vs. Cubs Projected Pitchers
John Brebbia (6-1, 2.93 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs. Wade Miley (1-0, 3.13 ERA, 1.17 WHIP)
Brebbia opens a bullpen game for the Giants, as he has done on four other occasions this year. However, the Cubs will be facing plenty of the Giants relievers in this game, as Brebbia has not pitched more than one inning the last four times he was used as an opener.
Miley is making his sixth start of the season and second since June 10, as he spent nearly three months on the injured list with a shoulder injury. In his first start since coming off the IL on Sept. 6, Miley threw 69 pitches and was removed after four innings, following a 54-pitch outing in his final rehab start.
Giants vs. Cubs Picks
Giants vs. Cubs ML Pick
Cubs (-110) ★★
Given Miley’s increase from 54 to 69 pitches the last two times he toed the rubber, it is fair to speculate whether he'll be allowed to reach a pitch count in the mid-70s as he gets stretched out for the remainder of the season. Any length he gives the team would be an added bonus and help protect a Cubs bullpen that ranks 29th with a 5.57 ERA over the last 30 days.
San Francisco’s bullpen ranks just outside the top 10 with a 3.41 ERA in that span. However, getting nine outs from a mix of several relievers is much different than nailing down the final innings with its top arms.
The Giants rank 19th in wRC+ and 20th in BABIP against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days. San Francisco has led after three innings in four of its previous five games against NL Central opponents with a losing record, but we expect Chicago to jump out early in this one.
Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.
Giants vs. Cubs O/U Pick
Over 8 (-110) ★★★
San Francisco’s bullpen may rank in the top half of the league in ERA over the last month, but it has been susceptible to the long ball. Giants relievers have the sixth-highest HR/FB rate (12.9%) in that span, which can get them into trouble if the wind blows out at Wrigley. Chicago’s bullpen has the worst such rate (18.7%), so the Giants have a chance to improve upon their 29 home runs against southpaws over the last 30 days, which rank in the league’s top half.
The Under has cashed in San Francisco’s and Chicago’s last four games, but this is when that streak ends.
Giants vs. Cubs Prop Pick
Miley Over 1.5 Walks (+110) ★★
Given Chicago’s bullpen struggles of late, the Cubs would like nothing more than for Miley to give them at least five solid innings. He has walked 10 batters in 23 innings this year and at least two batters in two of his previous three starts.
San Francisco has the fourth-highest walk rate (9.2%) against lefties over the last month, and that patience will help cash this prop Sunday.
Where to Bet on Giants-Cubs Picks
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Giants-Cubs picks made on 9/11/2022 at 8:49 a.m. ET.
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