Dodgers vs. Cardinals MLB Picks: Back Home Dog in St. Louis

Tuesday's pitching matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals is the slightest bit skewed. Find out where we lean in our Dodgers-Cardinals picks.

It is downright scary to be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers these days. L.A. has won seven in a row and has its sights set on the Cardinals as victim No. 3 in a growing number of series victories.

The Cardinals are coming off a split of a four-game set with the Philadelphia Phillies, which has to be encouraging after two straight series losses to the Phillies and Braves. This is an opportunity to become a player in the National League once again.

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Tuesday's game between the Dodgers and Cardinals (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Dodgers vs. Cardinals Game Info

Date/Time: Tuesday, July 12, 7:45 p.m. ETTV: TBS, SportsNet LA, Bally Sports MidwestLocation: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MOWeather: 86 degrees, sunny, wind 8 mph in

Dodgers vs. Cardinals Odds

Dodgers vs. Cardinals Odds Analysis

The Dodgers were initially very modest -138 favorites here on the road before the money began to pour in on the road favorites. DraftKings is reporting that 79% of all moneyline tickets and 88% of the moneyline handle is on L.A., which is why the Dodgers have drifted out as far as -164 at FanDuel. The best price on L.A. would be -155 at DraftKings and, as you’d expect, the best value on St. Louis is at FanDuel.

The total here hasn't been too popular, with a 50/50 split on the Over and Under at DraftKings. Still, there is a discrepancy here with 68% of the handle on the Under.

https://twitter.com/FabianArdaya/status/1546306536745553926?s=20&t=rWYixAfLa8qMDapJwR4shw

Dodgers vs. Cardinals Projected Pitchers

Mitch White (1-1, 3.38 ERA) vs. Matt Liberatore (2-1, 4.74 ERA)

Mitch White has had his ups and downs this season, but he's been pretty solid in the last two outings. He's allowed just one earned run over 10 1.3 innings and has brought his ERA down to a comfortable 3.38.

Matthew Liberatore's a bit more complicated. One of the best pitching prospects in baseball for the last year or so, he's been shaky out of the gate with a 4.74 ERA in his first big-league season. Still just 22, there's hope for Libertare given his track record.

Dodgers vs. Cardinals Picks

Cardinals (+138 via FanDuel) ????Under 9 (-120 via FanDuel) ???Matt Liberatore Over 3.5 strikeouts (+105 via DraftKings) ????

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Dodgers vs. Cardinals ML Pick

Cardinals ML (+138)

Liberatore has been bad - I get that. He's walking in here with a 5.49 xERA and a 52.5% hard-hit rate. We should consider the fact that the left-hander has pitched just 24 2.3 innings, however, and that he is fresh off a pretty solid outing against one of the hottest teams in baseball in the Atlanta Braves.

On top of that, I can not stress enough how much the Dodgers struggle against left-handed pitching. They are third in baseball with a 116 wRC+ this season, but just 11th in wRC+ against left-handers. While the sample may still be small for this season, we do have the last couple of years to look back on. L.A. simply struggles in this split, and with little roster turnover, it's still been an issue.

I also just do not like White in this spot. He just walked four batters in his last outing and owns a poor 9% walk rate this year. St. Louis has walked at an average rate this year, but its low 20.6% strikeout rate helps us get a clearer picture of how things will go against White. He's often been strikeout-reliant with an above-average strikeout rate and shouldn't be afforded the same number of punchouts against a disciplined team.

Dodgers vs. Cardinals O/U Pick

Under 9 (-120)

As much as I have faith in the Cardinals against White, we need to temper our expectations. After all, they're just 25th in wRC+ over the last two weeks and will scratch across three or four runs here at best considering the solid bullpen that L.A. has.

On top of that, we just touched on the fact that the Dodgers' lineup is simply less potent against southpaws, which erases my concerns about L.A. hanging eight or so runs to send this one comfortably Over. Mix in some wind blowing in from the outfield and I think we've got a number that's just a little bit too high.

Dodgers vs. Cardinals Prop Bet

Liberatore Over 3.5 strikeouts (+105)

The Dodgers' strikeout rate for the season? A pretty bland 22%. In the last two weeks? It's 23%. Against lefties? It's 22.3%.

No matter how you slice it, L.A. is full of strikeout victims here. Liberatore has averaged four strikeouts in his last three outings and has gone Over 3.5 punchouts in three of his six outings. He averaged close to nine strikeouts per nine in the minors and I don't know if he's really deserving of a line like this.

Where to Bet on Dodgers-Cardinals Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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Dodgers-Cardinals picks made 7/12/2022 at 2:12 p.m. ET.