Cubs vs. Padres MLB Picks: Can San Diego Crush Chicago?

The Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres square up on Monday night in what should be a lopsided affair. But just how lopsided will it get? Let's take a look at the matchup with our Cubs-Padres picks.

The Padres are among MLB's best clubs following five wins in their last seven games. They enter Monday tied for the fourth-best winning percentage in the majors after surging out to an impressive 19-10 record, and the team has done that without the still sidelined Fernando Tatis Jr.

Meanwhile, the Cubs are a raging dumpster inferno. A team that's been dismantled is 9-18, and the Cubs have lost five straight.

Often such a potentially one-sided matchup wouldn't offer significant value. But there's plenty to be found if you believe the Padres can be the latest to thoroughly pummel Chicago.

Here are my Cubs-Padres picks and predictions for their MLB matchup on Monday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and Draftkings Sportsbook; Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Cubs vs. Padres Game Info

Date/Time: Monday, May 9, 9:40 p.m. ETTV: Marquee Sports Station Network, Bally Sports San DiegoLocation: Petco Park, San Diego, CAWeather: 59 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 10-mph northwest winds

Cubs vs. Padres Odds

Cubs vs. Padres Odds Analysis

For those not quite feeling adventurous enough to play the alternate run lines, the best price on the Padres can be found at DraftKings, which is offering -165. San Diego's standard run line of -1.5 is at +135 through PointsBet, a slight difference from other major books that are at or near +130. For those who are daring, the Cubs are at +145 nearly across the board.

Bettors backing the Over need to scurry to Draftkings fast, as it's offering a total of 7. Others like FanDuel, PointsBet, Caesars Sportsbook, and BetMGM are at 7.5. The Over is the play regardless though given how many runs the Cubs have been allowing.

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Cubs vs. Padres Projected Starters

RHP Kyle Hendricks (1-3, 5.64 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) vs. LHP MacKenzie Gore (2-0, 1.71 ERA, 1.19 WHIP)

Hendricks has been getting roasted lately while surrendering 10 earned runs over his past two starts. He has also given up five home runs over that span. The veteran is seriously sputtering, and he's coughed up four-plus earned runs in half of six starts.

Meanwhile, Gore has been living up to high expectations. He's registered 9.4 K/9, and he's allowed a mere two earned runs over his last three outings. Two of Gore's appearances in 2022 have come against the brutal Cincinnati Reds; however, the Cubs' offense is only slightly better, and Gore is plenty capable of dominating Chicago too.

Cubs vs. Padres Picks

Spread: Padres -3.5 alternate run line (+320 via FanDuel) ????Over/Under: Over 7 (-115 via DraftKings) ????Manny Machado to hit a home run (+420 via FanDuel) ???

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Cubs vs. Padres Spread Pick

Padres -3.5 alternate run line (+320)

Sure, this spread is enough to spike the nerves. Dumb luck tied to a bouncing ball means the outcome of the even most lopsided mismatches doesn't seem as guaranteed in baseball.

But this one, on this night, and with this pitching matchup feels especially slanted.

Hendricks is allowing a home run on 4.5% of opposing plate appearances, which is easily a career worst, and opponents are hitting .275 against him. He's also not generating many strikeouts, with only six over his last three starts, a span of 17 innings.

The Cubs' woes go beyond him and their poor pitching. An exodus of talent has led to a team that's simply not hitting or scoring. The Cubs rank 22nd in hits, 20th in OPS, and 21st in runs.

Add it all up, and we get a putrid team that's repeatedly getting steamrolled, with a run differential of minus-20 already. The Cubs have dropped eight of their last nine games, and a run line of -3.5 would have hit against them in six of those defeats.

SEE ALSO: Time Is Running Out to Buy Julio Rodriguez for AL Rookie of the Year

Cubs vs. Padres O/U Pick

Over 7 (-115)

There's an easy dot connection between thinking the Cubs will roll over again, and hammering the Over.

The Padres could reach this number on their own, and then very little help is required from the Cubs. The Los Angeles Dodgers did that twice while outscoring the Cubs 20-3 during their three-game series that concluded on Sunday. Los Angeles and the Padres remain NL West powerhouse teams on near-equal footing, as both clubs have earned 19 wins.

The Under on this total has hit just 10 times over the Cubs' 27 games. Their team ERA is 4.38, while the Padres have scored the fifth-most runs in the NL (127).

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Cubs vs. Padres Prop Bet

Machado to hit a home run (+420)

Padres third baseman Manny Machado remains white hot. His OPS is up to 1.103, which ranks second in the majors. He's gone hitless just once over his last 13 games, a sizzling stretch that includes seven multi-hit performances. The infielder is hitting for power too, and he's just two dingers off the major-league lead with seven home runs.

A scorching batter against a struggling veteran pitcher is a clear recipe for success. Hendricks has provided the keys to the launch pad while allowing six home runs already through his six starts. That's tied for the fifth-worst mark in the majors, and 42.7% of the balls he's allowed in play have come with 95-plus mph exit velocity.

Machado isn't far removed from a two-homer game after accomplishing that feat on Thursday. The matchup is ideal for him to go deep again Monday.

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Daily Betting Picks

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Where to Bet on Cubs-Padres Picks

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Cubs-Padres picks made 5/9/2022 at 12:51 p.m. ET.