Brewers vs. Padres Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Tonight Sept. 22
There isn’t much at stake when the San Diego Padres host the Milwaukee Brewers at 9:40 p.m. ET on Monday at Petco Park, but my Brewers vs. Padres prediction still identified value plays.
The Brewers have a three-game lead for the No. 1 seed in the National League, while the Padres are firmly in the No. 5 spot at the start of the final week of the regular season. San Diego is a short favorite at home, but I’m interested in the plus-money price on the better team for Monday’s MLB picks.
⚾ Brewers vs. Padres prediction
MLB odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Brewers (+108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Brewers +1.5 (-210 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 7 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
📝 Brewers vs. Padres preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
🔥 Brewers to win (+108) ⭐⭐⭐
I’m not sure how much of an impact this series will have on playoff seeding, but it’s a big matchup for me as someone who bet Under 89.5 wins on the Padres before the season. Hedging isn’t an option, either, as I’m taking a +108 price tag in a coin-flip game to secure $10.80 on a $10 bet.
The total (7) projects a low-scoring battle in Monday’s opener, and I’m siding with Freddy Peralta in a potential pitching showdown.
Peralta is 17-6 with a 2.65 ERA and has only had one outing in which he gave up more than one run since late July. He comes into this matchup with great form after posting his best Location+ (134) in his last start against the Los Angeles Angels.
The Padres are coming off back-to-back wins over the Chicago White Sox to complete a 3-3 road trip. Still, I expect them to get off to a slow start in their final homestand.
💰 Best Brewers vs. Padres player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬇️ Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
In a low-scoring affair, I’ll take the Under on this prop for San Diego’s Fernando Tatis Jr. This line is as high as -127 at DraftKings, highlighting BetMGM’s bargain on a $10 bet to net $9.09.
Tatis has whiffed five times in six career at-bats against Peralta. His expected batting average in this matchup is .011. I expect another quiet night to end a four-game hitting streak for Tatis, projecting value on this Under at -115 or better.
📊 Brewers vs. Padres odds: Sept. 22
MLB odds update live in real time.
📈 Brewers vs. Padres betting odds analysis
The Padres began as a -130 favorite, but as of Monday morning, Milwaukee has received 54% of wagers. Assuming that action continues before first pitch, this game could move closer to a coin flip.
The total has remained at seven, but I’d be surprised if we see much movement on this number.
🔢 Brewers vs. Padres stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Brewers (95-61) | Statistic (per game) | Padres (85-71) |
|---|---|---|
| 5.09 | Runs | 4.27 |
| 8.9 | Hits | 8.4 |
| .261 | AVG | .252 |
| .409 | SLG | .388 |
| .743 | OPS | .709 |
| 3.61 | ERA | 3.69 |
| 9.0 | K/9 | 8.9 |
| 3.3 | BB/9 | 3.3 |
| 1.0 | HR/9 | 1.1 |
🚑 Brewers vs. Padres injury report
📺 Brewers vs. Padres game info
- When: Monday, Sept. 22
- Kickoff: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where: Petco Park (San Diego)
- How to watch: Local TV
💡 Expert MLB predictions today
- MLB home run predictions today
- Nationals vs. Braves prediction
- Cardinals vs. Giants prediction
- Brewers vs. Padres prediction
❓ Brewers vs. Padres FAQs
Who is favored to win Brewers vs. Padres?
The Padres are the -125 favorite to win on Monday.
What is the run line for Brewers vs. Padres?
San Diego is a 1.5 run-line favorite against Milwaukee.
What is the Over/Under for Brewers vs. Padres?
The total for Monday’s Brewers-Padres matchup is 7.
What are the best bets for Brewers vs. Padres?
My best bets for Brewers vs. Padres are Milwaukee moneyline and Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI.
When is the Brewers vs. Padres game?
First pitch for Brewers vs. Padres is 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park on Monday.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
Related Articles
