Braves vs. Phillies MLB Picks: Key NL East Clash Amid Playoff Push

Mike Spector

Last Updated: July 25, 2022 5:01 AM EDT • 2 min 44 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Can Ronald Acuna Jr. join the 40-40 club? — Ronald Acuna Jr. of the Atlanta Braves reacts after hitting a solo home run during the first inning against the Oakland Athletics at Truist Park on June 7, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. Photo by Todd Kirkland Getty Images via AFP.

The first of 12 remaining head-to-head meetings between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies takes place on Monday, with each team pursuing the NL East title or a wild-card spot. Let's look at the odds, line movement, and best picks for Monday's Braves-Phillies clash.

Monday's Braves-Phillies matchup is the only game on the slate between teams with winning records. Atlanta holds a slim 4-3 head-to-head edge over Philadelphia in 2022. The Phillies are coming off a disappointing home sweep at the hands of the Chicago Cubs, while the Braves have won six of their last seven series.

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Monday’s game between the Braves and Phillies (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Braves vs. Phillies Game Info

Date: Monday, July 25, 7:05 p.m. ETLocation: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PAWeather: 74 degrees, 50% chance of precipitation, 9-mph southwest winds

Braves vs. Phillies Odds

Braves vs. Phillies Odds Analysis

The Braves range from -172 favorites through FanDuel to -186 at PointsBet. Atlanta is the popular favorite, as the Braves are getting 55% of the tickets and 86% of the cash.

BetMGM's 8.5 makes it the only sportsbook posting a total greater than 8 for this contest. The Over is attracting 91% of the bets and 97% of the cash.

Braves vs. Phillies Projected Pitchers

LHP Max Fried (10-3, 2.64 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) vs. LHP Ranger Suarez (7-5, 4.07 ERA, 1.42 WHIP)

Max Fried's stellar first half earned him the first All-Star nomination of his six-year career. Fried lost his first two starts of the season, and then he went 15 outings before another defeat. He's pitched to an ERA higher than 3.00 in just one month during the current campaign.

Ranger Suarez appeared in 83 games entering 2022 while making just 15 starts. He's a full-time starter now, and Suarez is only 22 innings away from matching his previous single-season high. The lefty has won three of his last four starts, all on the road against the Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres, and Miami Marlins.

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1548426766397558784

Braves vs. Phillies Picks

Spread: Braves -1.5 (+102)???Over/Under: Over 8 (-114)???Player prop: Austin Riley to hit a home run??(+320)

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

Braves vs. Phillies Spread Pick

Braves -1.5 (+102)

The Braves are coming off a disappointing 9-1 loss to the Angels. However, they've been great at avoiding losing streaks while winning their last 10 games following a defeat. That's a big reason why Atlanta is an MLB-best 35-12 since the calendar turned to June, along with its plus-92 run differential and .266/.325/.488 slash line during that span.

Atlanta has been owning southpaws in 2022 as well. The club's 24 wins and .706 winning percentage against lefties lead the majors. The Braves should be successful again on Monday against Suarez.

Braves vs. Phillies O/U Pick

Over 8 (-114)

Suarez's only loss over his last four starts came during a June 29 home outing against Atlanta when he surrendered four earned runs over 6 2/3 innings. He endured an even rougher outing against the Braves on May 25, and Suarez is 0-2 against them with a 7.36 ERA and an 11:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 2022.

Meanwhile, Fried's road numbers are better than when he's at home. He's 5-0 with a 2.51 ERA across seven road starts, and his OBA and WHIP are 64 and 45 points lower, respectively, away from home. However, nearly every team that's faced Fried twice in 2022 (the Nationals, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, and Milwaukee Brewers) fared better against him the second time, except for the Cincinnati Reds. Philadelphia should do its part to cash this Over.

Braves vs. Phillies Player Prop Pick

Riley to hit a home run (+320)

Suarez has allowed a home run in three of his last four starts, and he's posted a worse HR/9 at home than on the road.

The 26-year-old has surrendered eight of his nine home runs to right-handed batters, and Riley has homered in seven of his previous 13 games. His 28 dingers tie him for third in the league, leading to great value with these odds on Monday.

https://twitter.com/grantmcauley/status/1551197442720337920

Where to Bet on Braves vs. Phillies Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook Caesars Sportsbook DraftKings Sportsbook PointsBet BetMGM

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Braves vs. Phillies picks made 7/25/2022 at 7:40 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Mike Spector

I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.