Braves vs. Mets Same Game Parlay Picks: Atlanta Will Get Back at Carrasco on Thursday

A rivalry is continued when the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets play yet again in the Queens. Can the Braves gain ground on the Mets? We break it down with our Braves-Mets same-game parlay picks.

The Braves are looking to make a push for the NL East crown, and they’ll have a shot at the team in their way when they take on the Mets starting on Thursday in New York.

Kyle Wright was terrible the last time he faced the Mets, and Carlos Carrasco was excellent the last time he saw the Braves. Will the same story unfold here?

Here are my same-game parlay picks for Thursday’s matchup between the Braves and Mets (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).

Braves vs. Mets Same-Game Parlay Picks

Same-Game Parlay Predictions for Braves vs. Mets

Over 8.5

I do not like either of the pitchers going here. Carrasco carries a 3.97 xERA into this start against one of the best offenses in baseball which will be debuting some new bats. Atlanta has a solid 107 wRC+ in the last two weeks and has impacted the baseball with a 9.4% barrel rate in that time with a 41.9% hard-hit rate.

Carrasco’s barrel rate of 7.1% and .374 xwOBA on contact are all the proof you need that he can’t be trusted against such a talented team when it comes to hammering the ball.

On the other hand, Kyle Wright’s expected ERA is a full run higher than his real-life ERA and while he hasn’t been as bad in the barrel department he’s actually been much worse in exit velocity and xwOBA on contact.

Carrasco Under 5.5 Ks

While Carrasco has a good outing against the Braves under his belt this season, his 7.2 strikeouts per nine in three career starts against Atlanta are the second-lowest of any team he faces. There’s been turnover, sure, but just last season Carrasco yielded five runs to a similar Braves lineup.

All that has me excited to short his strikeout number which I think should be a full number lower. I also am concerned with his depressed strikeout rate, in general, this season.

Wright Under 4.5 Ks

I’ll dish out criticism to both pitchers here. Wright has been very lucky to hang around as long as he has in recent games given the high number of hits and home runs he’s yielded, and he’s gone Under this total in four of his last seven outings. Despite going seven innings against the Mets earlier this season on May 3, he struck out just three.

That’s because the Mets simply don’t strike out. They’ve been arguably the best contact team in the league and in the last 14 days own just an 18.6% strikeout rate.

That is simply tremendous. It’s already hard enough to strike out these guys, but for Wright this could get even trickier given how bad his underlying numbers are. He could be yanked in the fourth inning.

Where to Bet on Braves-Mets same-game parlay picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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Braves-Mets picks made 8/4/2022 at 2:40 p.m. ET.