⚾ Blue Jays vs. Tigers Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, May 15

My Blue Jays vs. Tigers prediction buys low on Toronto as road favorites and expects it to win this series opener. I’m doubling down and backing Yesavage to limit Detroit’s red-hot rookie Kevin McGonigle, and explain why there’s value with a Blue Jays slugger to go yard as part of my MLB picks.

⚾ Blue Jays vs. Tigers picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.3 units

🏆 Who will win Blue Jays vs. Tigers?

Toronto is 9-3 in Yesavage’s 12 MLB starts, including the postseason. With him working his way back to full strength after an injury had him on the IL for the first month of the season, I expect the righty to lead the team to a road victory.

Score prediction: Blue Jays 5, Tigers 3

💰 Blue Jays vs. Tigers prediction & best bet

Blue Jays ML (-120)

Toronto ended a four-game losing streak (and 2-7 stretch) with a come-from-behind victory over Tampa Bay on Wednesday. In that poor nine-game stretch, the Blue Jays batted .235 with a .332 slugging percentage.

I’m buying low on Toronto since much of its struggles of late coincided with playing six games against the Rays. Prior to the Blue Jays stealing Wednesday’s series finale, the Rays won three straight and 16 of 18, while pitching to a 1.72 ERA and owning a plus-41 run differential. A series against the Tigers should help the Blue Jays get on the right track.

🔥 Best Blue Jays vs. Tigers player prop bet

Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+100)

From April 15-29, Kevin McGonigle had a 13-game hitting streak during which he batted .358 with seven extra-base hits. He also had at least one hit in 25 of his first 30 MLB games, and at the time ranked in the top 10 of all batters (min. 90 PA) in average, on-base percentage, wRC+, xAVG, xwOBA, and WAR.

Despite all of that, I still have optimism that Trey Yesavage will limit the young slugger, as he hasn’t allowed an extra-base hit in 26 combined at-bats to left-handed hitters. 

For as hot as McGonigle was, he is slashing just .186/.352/.209 over the last 15 days. His batting average and on-base percentage are also 65 and 45 points lower, respectively, at home than in road games.

Since this wager also returns plus-money odds, I'm backing this instead of bet365's +175 odds for McGonigle to go hitless.

💣 Blue Jays vs. Tigers home run prediction

Daulton Varsho to hit a home run (+586)

Daulton Varsho had a flair for the dramatic in the team’s last game, as he became just the fourth different player (and the fifth occurrence) in Blue Jays franchise history with a walk-off grand slam. 

Varsho went to the opposite field for the grand slam, which is nothing new for this season as his pull percentage is on pace to lower considerably from 42% last year (it is currently 32.5%). If Varsho starts pulling the ball more like he has done for most of his career, he is due for positive regression from a power standpoint, considering his current 38.6% hard-hit rate is on pace to be his second-highest of the last five seasons.

Looking for more long balls? Dive into my best home run predictions today.

🚀 Blue Jays vs. Tigers same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay work together to help achieve a Blue Jays victory. The McGonigle wager adds value as a plus-money play, which is why I had more flexibility and swapped Varsho's home run prop for a hits/runs/RBI bet. Varsho has gone over this projected total in seven of 12 games this month.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Blue Jays vs. Tigers: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Typically I do not like to make moneyline wagers at anything steeper than -150 odds, so Toronto's -120 odds fall well within my comfort range of not laying too much juice.

From a Varsho home run standpoint, he is a slugger that can hit home runs in bunches, as three of his five dingers from this year came within a four-game span. He also had four occurrences with home runs in consecutive games last year.

📊 Live Blue Jays vs. Tigers odds

There is a big gap between Toronto's -120 moneyline odds at FanDuel and its next-shortest -130 odds at the top sports betting sites. But I expect FanDuel's line to shade towards the Blue Jays and more closely align with the rest of the market considering the Tigers have lost eight of their last nine.

All of the best sports betting sites are in unison with an O/U of 8 runs. bet365 was the only sportsbook to drop their total to 7.5 at one point, but it was quickly bet back up to 8, which suggests we shouldn't see any other 7.5s pop up anytime soon.

📈 Blue Jays vs. Tigers betting trends

🚑 Blue Jays vs. Tigers injuries

📺 How to watch Blue Jays vs. Tigers

• Date: Friday, May 15
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Comerica Park (Detroit, Mich.)
• Streaming: Apple TV
• Blue Jays starter: Trey Yesavage (1-1, 0.68 ERA)
• Tigers starter: Ty Madden (0-0, 2.45 ERA)