⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Tuesday, May 26
There are few sights more beautiful to a dinger producer than a fastball that's below league average in any way.
I'm aiming to feast on a few such offerings with my home run predictions today, and it sure helps that the selected sluggers devour fastballs often. Ben Rice leads the way in that regard today for my MLB home run picks, but Hunter Goodman and Nick Kurtz can do plenty of damage, too.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 26
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice home run (+373 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.75u | Has posted a .913 OPS against lefties like Bailey Falter. |
| Hunter Goodman home run (+331 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.66u | Eric Lauer relies heavily on one of the worst fastballs leaguewide. |
| Nick Kurtz home run (+278 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.56u | Emerson Hancock's fastball has been going in the other direction hard, too. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 1.98 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Ben Rice to hit a home run (+373)
Ben Rice's OPS doesn't drop much when the left-handed slugger faces a southpaw, as he sits at .910 against lefties. That's important today because Rice can then take advantage of a pristine matchup against Bailey Falter.
The Royals' hurler struggles at the best of times, with his hard-hit rate last year sitting in just the 14th percentile. And now he's just getting back during his fifth appearance of the season after coming off the injured list last week.
A healthy and fully in form Falter scares no one, as last year batters were slugging .700 off his heater.
📡 SBR Edge: Seeking heat
You simply do not want to throw a substandard fastball to Ben Rice, who's slugging 1.206 against four-seamers.
π₯ More home run picks today
Hunter Goodman to hit a home run (+331)
Yes, Hunter Goodman has been scuffling during May after being on fire in March and April, with his OPS sitting at .577 during the current month after being at .890 to begin the season.
But Eric Lauer has consistently been the cure for what ails a slumping masher.
Lauer never possessed imposing velocity, but now the average speed on the southpaw's four-seamer has declined even further from 91.7 mph last year to 90.4 now.
His command has been poor too, with Lauer's walk rate climbing from 6.1 last campaign to 9.9 currently. Unsurprisingly then, opposing batters are catapulting a fifth percentile fastball that he throws a whopping 45.5% of the time, as that four-seamer comes with a .623 slugging percentage, according to Baseball Savant.
🤑 Six simple outs
Want ways to cash in on a scoreless first frame? Head over to Dustin Saracini's Best NRFI bets today.
Nick Kurtz to hit a home run (+278)
To a lesser degree and from a different angle, we see a similar tale of fastball woe here with Emerson Hancock, and therefore an opportunity for the heat-hunting Nick Kurtz.
The Mariners' Hancock produces average fastball velocity (94.9 mph) on a pitch he uses 43% of the time against lefties like Kurtz. But the pitch lacks movement, which contributes to it getting pummeled. Opposing batters are posting a hard-hit rate of 63.8% against Hancock's fastball, leading to his 17th percentile average exit velocity allowed.
Kurtz excels against four-seamers too while posting a 64.5% hard-hit rate against that pitch. And his overall rate of 58% sits fifth MLB-wide.
π Best home run parlay picks today
The cartoon version of Mark McGwire once asked a pressing question about whether you'd like to know the truth about the universe or see dingers. I know my answer, and so do all three of my picks today when they see a below-average fastball.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Ben Rice home run (+373)
- Hunter Goodman home run (+331)
- Nick Kurtz home run (+278)
Best odds: +7606 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 1.5u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-101-1 | -8.13 units β | -15.7% β |
| Home run picks | 14-67-0 | -3.87 units β | -24.0% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-20 | -1.00 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
As always, you won't be seeing me increase my unit size in a fun but volatile market. But it was mighty tempting with Kurtz, who keeps displaying both top-end power and plate discipline after setting an Athletics record last night while reaching base in a 48th consecutive game.
Combine that with his 99th percentile average exit velocity and bat speed, and there's a whole lot to like about him today, especially ahead of the matchup against Hancock.
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