Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds, Picks & Prop Bets for Sunday, May 11

With an enticing matchup against a home run-prone pitcher in Zack Wheeler, we're locked in on Jose Ramirez to hit a dinger on Sunday Night Baseball as part of our best home run predictions today.

💰 Best MLB home run predictions & odds today: May 11

Here are my best MLB home run predictions and odds today with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our MLB player prop odds tool for the latest MLB odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.  

🧨 Bobby Witt Jr. player prop pick: To hit a home run (+450 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Fernando Tatis Jr. player prop pick: To hit a home run (+220 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Shohei Ohtani player prop pick: To hit a home run (+280 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Jose Ramirez player prop pick: To hit a home run (+540 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

💣 Home run predictions today: MLB expert picks & prop bets

Here's a breakdown of my best home run prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our MLB picks along with our guide on how to bet on MLB.  

⚾ Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +450 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $45)

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It hasn't been a pretty start to the season for Lucas Giolito. In his two starts for the Boston Red Sox, he's lasted just 9 2/3 innings while giving up two dingers, nine earned runs, and 15 hits. Now he's got to try and get it together against one of the best bats in baseball? I don't think so.

Giolito leans heavily on his four-seamer, using it 58.5% of the time, and Bobby Witt Jr. would love nothing more than to see it. The Royals' superstar put up a ridiculous .685 xSLG with a 57.7% hard hit rate against four-seamers last year. While his numbers aren't quite as dominant this year (.472 xSLG), he's hitting four-seamers even harder with a 60.7% hard hit rate. He has 21 dingers off fastballs since last season, and should have the opportunity to hit No. 22 today.

📊 Red Sox vs. Royals home run odds

⚾ Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +220 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $22)

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No player hitting the diamond today has a better opportunity than Fernando Tatis Jr. to absolutely rip the laces off a baseball and send it into orbit. Sitting seventh in the NL in home runs (9), Tatis should be able to reach double digits today against the Colorado Rockies and pitcher German Marquez, who already has a 9.90 ERA and 0-6 record across seven starts this season.

The last time Marquez took the mound, he gave up two home runs, and it won't be any easier today. The 30-year-old righty loves his sinker (29.2%) and four-seamer (28.3%), two pitches that Tatis is hitting well this season. The Padres slugger has a .440 average and .560 SLG against sinkers and a jaw-dropping .436 average, .718 SLG, and 67.6% hard hit rate against four-seamers. He's poised to go yard.

📊 Padres vs. Rockies home run odds

⚾ Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +280 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $28)

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With an NL-leading 12 home runs, Ohtani can add to his total today by taking Zac Gallen to task. The Diamondbacks' pitcher has given up six home runs already this season and he doesn't stack up well against the reigning MVP. Gallen is primarily a four-seam fastball pitcher (48%) and that's just about the worst pitch you can throw Ohtani's way.

The Dodgers' DH had an unbelievable .680 xSLG and 65.3% hard hit rate against four-seamers last season, but has somehow been even more dominant against them this year. Ohtani has pulverized four-seamers to the tune of an .880 xSLG and 73.9% hard hit rate to give him 28 home runs off of fastballs dating back to last season.  

📊 Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks home run odds

⚾ Jose Ramirez (Guardians) to hit a home run ⭐⭐

Best odds: +540 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $54)

This is as much about Zack Wheeler struggling to contain baseballs from being knocked out of the park as it is about Jose Ramirez's power at the plate. Wheeler has given up the eighth-most home runs in MLB this season (8) and has allowed at least one dinger in every single start this year. 

That's got to be music to Ramirez's ears, who has 45 home runs since the start of last season. The All-Star third baseman also matches up well against Wheeler, who predominantly uses his four-seamer (41.9%), a pitch Ramirez had a .625 SLG against last season. And though he hasn't hit it quite as hard this year, he still has a .516 xSLG against four-seamers and should get a chance to hit one out of Progressive Field.

📊 Phillies vs. Guardians home run odds

💰Best MLB home run parlay picks

Here is our best MLB home run parlay for Sunday's baseball action; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay.

💣 Bobby Witt Jr. to hit a home run (+450)
💣 Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run (+220)
💣 Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+250)
💣 Jose Ramirez to hit a home run (+525)

🚀 Best parlay odds: +38400 via bet365 ($10 to win $3,840)

🧠 MLB expert picks today

• Phillies vs. Guardians prediction
• Phillies vs. Guardians player props

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