Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds, Picks & Prop Bets for Thursday, May 1

Yesterday in our best home run predictions today we used the revolutionary strategy of targeting baseball destroyers who were going against teams with woeful pitching.

That led to two nice payouts when Alex Bregman (+525) went deep against a Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff that leads the league in home runs allowed. Paul Goldschmidt (+540) did the same off a Baltimore Orioles unit that's also among the leaders in homer sadness.

Today we're paying the homer charity case that is the Blue Jays a visit again, and leaning on a rising slugger in Detroit.

💰 Best MLB home run predictions & odds today: May 1

Here are my best MLB home run predictions and odds today with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our MLB player prop odds tool for the latest MLB odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.  

🧨 Rafael Devers player prop pick: To hit a home run (+325 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Bryce Harper player prop pick: To hit a home run (+350 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Spencer Torkelson player prop pick: To hit a home run (+370 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Jackson Chourio player prop pick: To hit a home run (+450 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

💣 Home run predictions today: MLB expert picks & prop bets

Here's a breakdown of my best home run prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our MLB picks along with our guide on how to bet on MLB.  

⚾ Rafael Devers (Red Sox) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +325 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $32.50)

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Jose Berrios shined the last time he faced the Boston Red Sox, going seven innings while allowing just one earned run. But overall, the underlying metrics tell a scary tale about the Blue Jays' righty. That includes an OPS allowed of .800, a significant jump from .706 last year. His barrel rate also sits in just the 25th percentile, according to Baseball Savant.

And even when he's at his best, Berrios limits traffic on the base paths while allowing plenty of liftoffs. That includes a career worst 31 homers given up last year.

Which all means it's a fine time for a lefty who's approaching volcano-hot levels to face him.

Enter Rafael Devers, then. He's been inconsistent through the first month and change of the season, but recently Devers has been burying the needle. His five-game hit streak might sound modest, but it features three multi-hit games, six extra-base hits, and three homers.

Add in a Baseball Savant page that's a sea of red (most notably a 96-mph average exit velocity that's the second-best leaguewide, and a 61.7 hard-hit rate that sits third), and this is the most appealing matchup of the day.

📊 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays home run odds

⚾ Bryce Harper (Phillies) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +350 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $35)

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The Washington Nationals' pitching staff is another one to pounce on regularly in this market. Their pitching also gives off an odor while sitting 27th with a 5.27 ERA. But that gets significantly worse once the starter exists, as their bullpen is the league's worst with a 7.41 ERA, and it's not close (the second-worst team is at 5.49).

And that putrid bullpen could get plenty of exposure today while the Phillies benefit, very much including Bryce Harper. Brad Lord is making only his fifth major-league start for the Nationals, and he's been swatted around to the tune of a 4.67 ERA. He hasn't been able to go deep yet, with his longest outing 4 1/3 innings.

Lord also leans exceedingly hard on his fastball while throwing a four-seamer 59.2% of the time. There are lots of signs indicating Harper is on course for positive regression, including his .587 expected slugging against fastballs, which is significantly higher than the two-time MVP's .389 actual slugging when facing the pitch.

📊 Phillies vs. Nationals home run odds

⚾ Spencer Torkelson (Tigers) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +370 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $37)

Patience is so very hard, and especially when it comes to a first overall pick. Spencer Torkelson's struggles in the majors reached such a low point last year that he was sent down to Triple-A in early June. He finished that season with a wretched .219/.295/.374 slash line.

Now he's taken a bounding leap, with eight homers already on May 1 (he totaled 10 last year), and an OPS that's jumped from .669 to .896.

Yes, it's still early yet, and there's time for some valleys to go along with his high peaks. But although the consistent quality contact was lagging before, we've seen this power from Torkelson with his 31 homers during his second MLB season in 2023.

He can sustain that much at least, and even amid his scalding-hot start there's room for more, with a .607 expected slugging sitting a fair bit ahead of the first baseman's .537 actual slugging. His hard-hit rate has jumped significantly compared to last year too, going from 39.7% to 50.7%.

That all sets him up well against the lefty Yusei Kikuchi tonight, who has given up 25-plus homers in three of his last four seasons. Kikuchi throws his slider 35.4% of the time, and Torkelson is slugging .722 against that pitch.

Torkelson could contribute to a significant offensive effort, which has surely prompted his Tigers to be among the most bet teams tonight on the moneyline, according to John Ewing of BetMGM. 

📊 Tigers vs. Angels home run odds

⚾ Jackson Chourio (Brewers) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +450 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $45)

Part of the motivation here is scrambling to snatch up a significant outlier price. The +450 for Chourio to go yard tonight from FanDuel is on another continent compared to the rest of our best MLB betting sites. That includes the +375 at bet365, the +360 at BetMGM, and especially the +320 at Caesars.

It's an odd rogue move from FanDuel considering the matchup, with Chourio going up against the highly vulnerable Sean Burke. The latter has been demolished, with an expected slugging against of .631 that sits in the bottom 1% of MLB. He's also tied for seventh leaguewide after allowing seven homers, and his barrel rate given up rests in just the sixth percentile.

For his part, Chourio has cooled somewhat after a hot start, but he's still clubbed six homers over the March/April period. The second-year standout is also rising fast overall, with his .791 OPS over the same span much higher than the .608 he was putting up at this time last year.

📊 Brewers vs. White Sox home run odds

💰Best MLB home run parlay picks

Here is our best MLB home run parlay for Thursday's baseball action; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay.

💣 Spencer Torkelson to hit a home run (+370)
💣 Jackson Chourio to hit a home run (+450)
💣 Bryce Harper to hit a home run (+350)
💣 Rafael Devers to hit a home run (+320)

🚀 Best parlay odds: +48756 via FanDuel ($10 to win $4,875.65)

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