⚾ MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Monday, June 22
The soaring has been continuing for both the baseballs and my MLB home run picks lately, as I'm now up nearly six units over the last two weeks after two more hits on Friday.
Of course, this is a notoriously volatile market, so icy times can lie ahead. But we've built some room for error, and I'll lean on the only watchable part of the Boston Red Sox and their offense to keep the good times going in my home run predictions today.
That's Willson Contreras, who's in the always homer-friendly confines of Coors Field after belting 16 homers already, and his career high is 24.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds June 22
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Willson Contreras home run (+320 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.64u | Should see plenty of sinkers tonight, a pitch he's demolishing. |
| Max Muncy home run (+350 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.70u | Turns fastballs into laser beams, with a .355 batting average against that pitch. |
| Jackson Chourio home run (+343 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.67u | Brady Singer's exit velocity allowed ranks among the worst leaguewide. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.01 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Willson Contreras (+320)
Contreras is achieving his success through nearly unparalleled bat speed.
The veteran ranks in the 95th percentile for that metric, which has contributed to his power and 13.4% barrel rate (85th percentile). Put it all together, and his air pull rate of 27.6% is crushing Contreras' previous high of 19.8.
Contreras punishes sinkers with ease too while posting an absurd .818 slugging percentage against that pitch. Tonight he'll be facing the struggling Ryan Feltner of the Rockies, who throws his sinker 22% of the time to righties.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NESN
📡 SBR Edge: Slugging against sliders
Feltner also throws his slider often to righties (25% of the time), and Contreras is slugging .545 against that offering, according to Baseball Savant.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Max Muncy (+350)
Yes, fastball destruction has been a job requirement for a while now if you desire to be a top-tier MLB slugger given the velocity coming from the mound so consistently.
But some excel at it even more than most, and some hurlers heave their four-seamer more than most. We can check both boxes as our eyes widen tonight ahead of Max Muncy squaring off against the Minnesota Twins' Zebby Matthews.
He uses his heater 38% of the time against lefties like Muncy, and the Dodgers' infielder is posting an astronomical .707 expected slugging when facing that pitch. That's largely coming from his 68.8% hard-hit rate against four-seamers.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet Los Angeles
🤑 More MLB props
Want more ways to cash in today? Head over to Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today.
Home run pick: Jackson Chourio (+343)
The Reds' Brady Singer is repeatedly allowing screaming fireballs traveling fast in the opposite direction, as Singer's average exit velocity given up of 91.3 mph puts him in the bottom 6% MLB-wide.
He throws his sinker 51% of the time to righties, which has become a rather significant problem because that pitch isn't fooling anyone. Opposing batters are registering a .538 slugging percentage and .314 batting average off it. His flawed sinker is also a major reason why Singer's air pull rate allowed is a career worst 21.9%.
Put it all together, and we get a pitcher who's tied for the sixth-most homers given up this season (17). He's facing a threat in Chourio who's slugging .611 off sinkers.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
💣️ More dinger picks
Our Mike Spector is eyeing Christian Walker to do deep in his Astros vs. Blue Jays prediction.
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Willson Contreras home run (+320)
- Max Muncy home run (+350)
- Jackson Chourio home run (+340)
Best odds: +8216 via FanDuel (0.02u -> 1.6u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 49-137-2 | -1.84 units β | -2.6% β |
| Home run picks | 30-93-0 | 0.53 units β | 2.05% β |
| HR Parlays | 1-31 | 0.80 units β | 1.25% β |
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