⚾ Astros vs. Blue Jays Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Monday, June 22

Shane Bieber was supposed to make his season debut for the Toronto Blue Jays today, but Sunday’s rainout meant Dylan Cease will start this series opener against the Houston Astros. He will be opposed by Hunter Brown, with first pitch from the Rogers Centre scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited). The Blue Jays are -120 betting favorites.

My Astros vs. Blue Jays prediction backs the road underdogs with Toronto struggling to gain consistency. I also expect a dominant outing from Brown, while adding a Houston slugger to go deep with the last of my MLB picks.

⚾ Astros vs. Blue Jays picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.11 units

🏆 Who will win Astros vs. Blue Jays?

Houston has quietly won four of its last five series, while Toronto has lost each of its last two series at home. I’m backing the Astros to keep their momentum going.

Score prediction: Astros 5, Blue Jays 3

💰 Astros vs. Blue Jays prediction & best bet

Astros ML (+108)

Dylan Cease ranks in the 99th percentile in strikeout rate thanks to a 37% whiff rate, and his 110 strikeouts lead all American League pitchers. But Houston ranks outside the top 10 in lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, and can frustrate Cease with a top 10 team ISO since the calendar turned to June.

Hunter Brown has made just one start since the end of March (three total starts this season). But the righty has allowed just a .145 OBA, and has a 1.42 ERA in three career starts against Toronto.

🔥 Best Astros vs. Blue Jays player prop bet

Hunter Brown Under 2.5 earned runs (-153)

Hunter Brown’s splits before and after May 2024 are eye-popping. Before that time, he had pitched to a 5.69 ERA over 178.2 innings pitched, while allowing a 1.6 HR/9 rate, .824 opponents’ OPS, 44% hard-hit rate, and 96% barrel rate. Since May 2024, Brown has pitched to a 2.40 ERA over 348.2 innings (third in MLB over that span, min. 250 IP), a 0.8 HR/9 rate, .585 opponents’ OPS, 30.4% hard-hit rate, and 5.3% barrel rate.

One huge difference in those splits is Brown’s development of a sinker, which he didn’t throw at all before 2024, and now throws it 22.1% of the time. 

Since 2025, Brown also ranks eighth in FIP, eighth in strikeout rate, fifth in opponents’ average, fourth in opponents’ OPS, and second in both hard-hit and barrel rates (min. 170 IP).

💣 Astros vs. Blue Jays home run prediction

Christian Walker to hit a home run (+550)

Dylan Cease’s most often used pitch against right-handed batters, and one he generates most of his whiffs on, is his slider. But the good news for Christian Walker is that he is slugging .725 on the 175 sliders he has seen this season (he has faced sliders 14.4% of the time).

Cease has also allowed multiple home runs in two of his last four starts, showing regression from what is on pace to be his best career HR/9 rate (0.6).

Houston recently came out and said they have no interest in dealing Walker at the trade deadline, and I am hoping that will help settle him after a seven-game home run drought, which followed homers in consecutive games.

🚀 Astros vs. Blue Jays same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay work well together to ensure an Astros outright victory. Instead of including Walker's home run odds, I am backing him to drive in a run as a more conservative play, given his recent power drought. But he still bats in a prime run-producing spot in the lineup behind Yordan Alvarez (who just had a 25-game on-base streak) and Jeremy Pena, and he had six RBI in five games before this current seven-game drought.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Astros vs. Blue Jays: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

The handicapping for this game was made a little more difficult with Toronto having an off day yesterday, which changed its starting pitching plans. But I'm siding with the Astros given Brown's dominant three-year run, while expecting Houston to do enough against Cease and his high strikeout total. I looked at the Under given the quality of both starting pitchers, but an O/U of 7.5 was too low for me, and was only a play at 8 or higher.

📊 Live Astros vs. Blue Jays odds

The line has steamed in Houston's favor, going from an opening number of Toronto -135 to -120 at BetMGM. Initially I expected this change in moneyline odds to be a result of the Blue Jays announcing Dylan Cease was starting instead of Shane Bieber making his season debut. But oddsmakers would have viewed Toronto as having a better chance to win with Cease on the mound instead of a pitcher making his season debut.

The total is also up a half-run across the market, as the O/U is now at 7.5 from an opening number of 7. That movement aligns with the early betting splits, as 61% of the early wagers back the Over.

📈 Astros vs. Blue Jays betting trends

🚑 Astros vs. Blue Jays injuries

📺 How to watch Astros vs. Blue Jays

• Date: Monday, June 22
• First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Rogers Centre (Toronto)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Astros starter: Hunter Brown (1-0, 1.10 ERA)
• Blue Jays starter: Dylan Cease (4-3, 2.71 ERA)