⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Tuesday, April 7
One of the most homer-generous lefties leaguewide is a target in our home run predictions today, and a trip to the homer haven of Coors Field is always wise.
That's why our home run picks are targeting Kyle Schwarber, the Philadelphia Phillies' power source with immense pop and great plate discipline, and now a deep love for the new ABS system.
Elsewhere, ride with the wall-denting Giancarlo Stanton while you still can and he's healthy, and the smoking-hot Jose Altuve, particularly when he's taking his hacks in that sweet, sweet mountain air.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 7
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber home run (+300 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.60u | The contact Robbie Ray does give up is often loud. |
| Giancarlo Stanton home run (+325 via bet365) | 0.20u β 0.65u | Aaron Civale is a launchpad too. |
| Jose Altuve home run (+420 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.84u | Is sizzling early, including a two-homer game. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.09 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+300)
Robby Ray is a strikeout menace, but that means being in the strike zone often while leaning hard on heat.
Ray has given up 30-plus home runs three times in his career, and early this season his barrel rate allowed sits in the 13th percentile, according to Baseball Savant.
Toss in an average exit velocity that rested in the bottom 7% leaguewide last year, and thumper Kyle Schwarber is well-positioned for liftoff. That's especially true after he posted a .964 OPS against lefties last season.
📡 SBR Edge: Lowering the temperature on Ray's heat
Ray is still effective, but predictably his fastball velocity has dipped from the southpaw's peak, shifting from an average of 94.8 mph during his 2021 Cy Young-winning season to 93.7 now.
π₯ More home run picks today
Giancarlo Stanton to hit a home run (+325)
Giancarlo Stanton has been mashing early this season while posting a .974 OPS.
He's recorded two hits in six of his eight games thus far, and now Stanton gets to take advantage of a matchup against Aaron Civale. He's only one season removed from giving up 29 home runs (tied for the seventh-most), with an HR/9 of 1.6.
Civale then allowed 16 deep shots while logging 18 starts last year. He tosses plenty of junk, and Stanton feasts on those offerings. His inferno start to the season is largely due to success against anything that breaks, as he's slugging .750 against breaking balls. He also slugged .588 last year off cutters, Civale's most-used pitch that he utilized 35% of the time last season.
Jose Altuve to hit a home run (+425)
Jose Altuve is sprinting out of the gate too this season, and impressively even more so with his 1.179 OPS. Now the pint-sized slugger gets to pounce on a homer-friendly lefty, with the thin air of Coors Field kindly lending a helping hand.
Altuve recorded three hits and two doubles during the Houston Astros' series opener against the Colorado Rockies on the road last night. Now he gets to face a lefty in Kyle Freeland, and righties tattooed him last year while producing an .821 OPS, compared to a .700 from lefties.
Freeland missed remarkably few bats with his 6.9 K/9 last seson. Most invitingly, his fly ball rate rests at a career-high 48.3% early this campaign.
π Best home run parlay picks today
We don't need to overthink this parlay. Yes, that's true for most homer parlays, which are the definition of a lottery ticket given the mountainous odds. But here we have three bombers who are facing three of the most homer-vulnerable starters on today's slate.
That's especially the case for Altuve, who's getting the longest odds of the three on this ticket, and he receives the Coord Field boost too
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Kyle Schwarber home run (+300)
- Jose Altuve home run (+420)
- Giancarlo Stanton home run (+300)
Best odds: +8220 via FanDuel (0.08u -> 6.6u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-19-0 | -1.31 units β | -8.8% β |
| Home run picks | 1-7-0 | -1.70 units β | -89.5% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-1 | -0.08 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
A sprinkle is typically my default approach for any home run bet, and especially so today.
Of the three bets, I hold the most confidence in Schwarber given the ideal matchup against the homer-prone Ray. The Phillies' slugger also isn't susceptible to scuffling against lefties and has historically thrived when facing a southpaw.
However, a limited play is still needed since Oracle Park can contain even the most violent contact. It was rated as the third-worst homer venue for lefty batters last year, according to Statcast's Ballpark Factors.
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