⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Tuesday, April 14
After going 2-1 yesterday and being a Lawrence Buter robbery away from an epic sweep, I'm back with my three best home run predictions today.
Watching Butler reach his glove over the right-field wall and rob Corey Seager last night was heartbreaking, but I'm going right back to the well with the Texas Rangers shortstop for the same reasons I did yesterday. Along with Seager, I'm betting on two star catchers to go yard.
I've parlayed the three bets for a +17199 lotto ticket, as we look for our first sweep of the young season.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 14
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Drake Baldwin home run (+540 via FanDuel) | 0.33u β2.11u | Up to five homers already this season |
| Hunter Goodman home run (+430 via FanDuel) | 0.33u β 1.75u | Plus pitching matchup in homer-friendly ballpark |
| Corey Seager home run (+418 via DraftKings) | 0.33u β 1.71u | Was inches away from a home run last night |
Total wagered: 1 units | Max profit: 4.57 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Drake Baldwin home run (+540)
Drake Baldwin has been one of the best hitters in baseball to start the season. He's up to five home runs and owns a .915 OPS thanks to an 88th percentile bat speed and barrel rate. He swings hard and hits the ball on the sweet spot of the bat; what more could you want for a home run bet?
Baldwin has a promising projection today, and based on these odds, we're getting better than 56% +EV. The Braves take on Max Meyer tonight, and he's had home run problem for essentially his entire career. This one checks all the boxes.
📡 SBR Edge: Trust the process
We were oh-so-close to the sweep last night after some discouraging results to start the season. Let's hope that's a sign of things to come, but all you can do is make good bets.
π₯ More home run picks today
Corey Seager home run (+418)
Good morning to everyone except for Lawrence Butler.
We were that close to a sweep and 13-unit profit yesterday. It didn't happen, but I'm betting on Seager again today.
The Rangers take on Jeffrey Springs tonight, who's absolutely due for some home run regression. He's yet to allow a long ball so far this season after giving up 1.47 per nine innings last year. We're getting a bit of a boost on these odds thanks to the lefty-lefty matchup, but Seager is fine against southpaws, and his projection reflects that.
Based on these odds, we're getting roughly 67% +EV. Let's just hope he hits one of out reach tonight.
π Best home run parlay picks today
I'm parlaying my three home run bets together and I'm putting $10 on them (or 0.08 units). The most important thing to remember with these home run parlays is to limit your wager size. I know it may seem enticing to put more money on them because you see the potential profit, but these +17199 odds represent just a 0.58% implied probability that this hits. Would you gamble a bunch of money on anything in life that has less than a 1% chance of happening?
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Drake Baldwin (+540)
- Hunter Goodman (+430)
- Corey Seager (+410)
Best odds: +17199 via FanDuel (0.08u -> 13.84u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-100 | -22.71units β | -35.9% β |
| Home run picks | 7-44 | -5.23 units β | -32.3% β |
| Parlays | 1-21 | -0.97 units β | -44.1% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wager 0.33 units ($42) on my of home run bets that meet multiple criteria. First, the average projection across two models needs to be at least 0.275. Second, the bet needs to be at least 25% +EV. Third, I would like to see either a plus pitching matchup or the game being played at a hitter-friendly ballpark, or, preferably, both.
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