⚾ MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets & Prop Picks for Tuesday, April 14
I haven't had a ton of success with my strikeout bets lately, so I'm tightening things up and have only two MLB player props today. However, along with my home run predictions today, we have enough action to keep you invested all evening.
We're rocking with a pair of strikeout props today, but only one of my MLB picks is for a full unit. We've been on the wrong side of variance during the early portion of the season, but a promising day of home runs yesterday has me hopeful that a bounce-back is coming.
I've added two more picks to form my four-leg parlay, which comes in at +1236.
βΎ MLB player props today: Best prop bet picks for April 14
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| βΎ Player prop | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| MacKenzie Gore Under 6.5 strikeouts (+120 via Caesars) | 0.4u β 0.88u | Dropping to 0.4 units due to his strikeout ability |
| Michael King Under 5.5 strikeouts (-110 via bet365) | 1u β 1.91u | Managing just 8.1 K/9 this season |
Total wagered: 1.4 units | Max profit: 1.39 units
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π° Best MLB player prop bet today
Michael King Under 5.5 strikeouts (-110)
Michael King racked up strikeouts for fun in his first season as a starter, but he experienced a decline last year and is all the way down to 8.10 per nine this year. His CSW is also down, from 31.3% two years ago to 27.9% this season.
King is projected for right around 4.6 strikeouts today, and based on that, we're getting just better than 31% +EV on this. I'd play this to odds as short as -135, and FanDuel is already pricing this at -129.
Our Dustin Saracini loves this pitching matchup enough to feature it in his best NRFI bets today.
📡 SBR Edge: Know your limits
I have only one full-unit strikeout prop today, because they haven't been going especially well lately and there wasn't a ton that I loved on the oddsboard today.
π₯ More MLB player prop picks
MacKenzie Gore Under 6.5 strikeouts (+120)
This one certainly worries me a bit, which is why I limited my wager to only 0.4 units.
MacKenzie Gore has been a monster so far for the Texas Rangers. He's managing 13.78 K/9, and he's also sitting at a career-low walk rate. The latter is allowing him to go deeper into games and rack up more punchouts.
However, the projections are really good for this one. I'm talking three separate projection models all having this at better than 35% +EV (a projection of right around six punchouts). So, I feel like I need to at least bet 0.4 units on it. It doesn't feel great, and Gore has already burned me once, but I'm trusting the numbers here.
🤑 More MLB props
Dive into my home run predictions for Tuesday if you're looking to cash in on some long balls today.
π Best MLB parlay picks today
I'm combining my two strikeout props and adding two more at DraftKings. The implied probability of these odds is 7.49%, so I've wagered 0.2 units ($25) on it myself. We're still looking for our first sweep on the player props this season.
💵 Best MLB parlay bet today
- Max Meyer Under 4.5 strikeouts (-122)
- Michael King Under 5.5 strikeouts (-114)
- MacKenzie Gore Under 6.5 strikeouts (+115)
- Nolan McLean Over 5.5 strikeouts (-122)
Best odds: +1236 via DraftKings (0.20u -> 2.67u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-100 | -22.71 units β | -35.9% β |
| Strikeouts | 13-25 | -11.90 units β | -32.4% β |
| Parlays | 1-12 | -0.97 units β | -44.1% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB player props today (April 14)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wager one full unit on all my main player prop bets, which you can also find on X. In order for a bet to qualify as one of my full-unit picks, it needs to be at least 20% +EV through two separate projection models.
I'll sometimes add bets on hitting or pitching prop markets that I feel less comfortable betting a full unit on, so I'll limit those to 0.4 units.
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