MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Pitcher’s Duel in Seattle?

Check out today's MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday's full schedule.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: June 14, 2023 8:58 AM EDT • 6 minute read

Seven games on Wednesday's full 15-game Major League Baseball slate are series finales, as a much different schedule awaits tomorrow. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday based on the best MLB odds.

Most baseball fans have heard of a cycle, but not many have heard of a cyclone, when a player hits a single, double, triple, and home run and also reaches base via walk in the same game. Per Stathead, there have been 44 cyclones in MLB history and just four since 2011, with J.T. Realmuto of the Philadelphia Phillies being the latest hitter to do so on Monday night. He was also the second of the last 10 players to hit for a cyclone in a losing effort.

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Wednesday’s MLB schedule and odds

Atlanta Braves (-225) vs. Detroit Tigers (+190)
Milwaukee Brewers (+140) vs. Minnesota Twins (-165)
San Francisco Giants (+125) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-145)
Toronto Blue Jays (-115) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-105)
Colorado Rockies (+195) vs. Boston Red Sox (-230)
New York Yankees (-105) vs. New York Mets (-115)
Pittsburgh Pirates (OFF) vs. Chicago Cubs
Los Angeles Angels (+125) vs. Texas Rangers (-145)
Cincinnati Reds (-115) vs. Kansas City Royals (-105)
Washington Nationals (+205) vs. Houston Astros (-245)
Cleveland Guardians (+135) vs. San Diego Padres (-155)
Tampa Bay Rays (-275) vs. Oakland Athletics (+230)
Philadelphia Phillies (+125) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-145)
Miami Marlins (+155) vs. Seattle Mariners (-180)
Chicago White Sox (+230) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-275)

Wednesday’s MLB best bets

Player prop: Jordan Montgomery to record win (+145 via DraftKings) vs. Giants ⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Gerrit Cole Under 6.5 strikeouts (-112 via FanDuel) vs. Mets ⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Adley Rutschman to score run (-104 via Caesars) vs. Blue Jays ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Total: Marlins-Mariners Under 7 (-105 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Wednesday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Jordan Montgomery to record win vs. Giants (+145 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants are two teams heading in opposite directions. St. Louis has lost nine of 11 games, while San Francisco has won five straight road games and 10 of 12 on the road. However, though the Cardinals have not been off to this bad of a start in nearly two decades, they are 7-16 in one-run games, and that glimpse of possible regression, coupled with the fact that they have a southpaw on the mound, has us backing them with a chance for a nice payday.

The Giants are in their worse hitting split with Jordan Montgomery on the mound, as they rank 22nd in OPS and 24th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. St. Louis trotted out lefty Matthew Liberatore in the series opener Monday, and it had a 3-2 lead after six innings before the bullpen allowed two late runs. Thus, we expect Montgomery to quiet the Giants' bats early and lead his team to its second straight win (following 10 consecutive losses in his starts).

St. Louis' offense should provide Montgomery with run support against Anthony DeSclafani, who is 1-5 in his last seven starts, with his ERA rising from 2.13 to 3.89 in that span.

DraftKings is our go-to sportsbook for this wager, as its odds trump the +127 and +140 found at Caesars and PointsBet, respectively, as well as those at our other best sports betting apps.

Player prop: Gerrit Cole Under 6.5 strikeouts vs. Mets (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole is on pace for his first single-digit K/9 rate (9.5) since 2017, his last season with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Cole's on-base percentage allowed is also the highest since then, and his 25.8% strikeout percentage is down nearly 7% from last year, which was already his lowest rate in six seasons.

Cole now faces a New York Mets lineup that strikes out at the fifth-lowest rate in baseball (20.4%). The Mets have also homered in eight straight games, and a similar power display while raising his pitch count early could mean a shorter outing for the righty (he has not recorded more than 18 outs in any of his previous six starts).

FanDuel is the only one of our best sportsbooks charging less than -130 in juice to back this number.

Player prop: Adley Rutschman to score run vs. Blue Jays (-104 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

No batter with a minimum of 10 at-bats against their opposing starter pitcher on Wednesday's slate has a higher OPS than Adley Rutschman's 1.950 OPS against Jose Berrios. Rutschman has seven hits in those 10 at-bats with three extra-base hits (one home run), and he clearly sees the ball well out of Berrios' hand, as he has not struck out once in that span.

Berrios' struggles away from home are well-documented, as his road ERA is more than two runs higher than his home mark. This is a four-star play, as Berrios has allowed a .288/.362/.585 slash line in 118 combined at-bats to current Orioles hitters, suggesting that Rutschman has plenty of protection in the lineup today.

All of our best sports betting sites are pretty much aligned at this number, as DraftKings and FanDuel offer -105 odds to score at least one run. FanDuel is the only sportsbook to offer an alternate line of +390 if Rutschman were to score two-plus runs.

Wednesday’s MLB game pick

Total: Marlins-Mariners Under 7 (-105 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Seattle Mariners righty Luis Castillo has posted the seventh-highest K/9 rate (10.8) in the league and has struck out six-plus batters in six consecutive starts. Per Inside Edge, Castillo has induced a 42% whiff rate on the first pitch of his at-bats (second-best among qualified starting pitchers), and his ability to generate swings and misses (90th percentile in whiff rate, 86th in K%) negates the Miami Marlins' top-five ranking in BABIP.

Miami counters with Eury Perez, who may soon be sent back to the minors - not because of poor pitching, but because he's 18 innings away from throwing the most innings he has thrown in a season at the professional level. However, until that happens, Miami will reap the benefits of its No. 1 prospect, who has pitched to a 4.34 FIP and allowed an xBA of .152 or better on all of his secondary (non-fastball) pitches.

PointsBet, along with DraftKings and BetRivers, is juiced to the Under at -105 odds, while all of the top sportsbooks are aligned with the O/U at 7.0 runs.

MLB best bets made 6/14/2023 at 6:26 a.m. ET.

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

FanDuel: $2,500 No Sweat First Bet | Read our FanDuel Review
Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”