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MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Can Gurriel Be RBI Machine vs. Mets?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: July 6, 2023 8:39 AM EDT • 4 min 47 sec read.

Ten of the 13 Major League Baseball games are finales of series started earlier this week, with three games played in the afternoon window. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Thursday based on the best MLB odds from our best MLB betting sites.

Two wagers have gone under the radar much of the last three weeks that need some public attention. The first is rather quirky, as the Cleveland Guardians have seen the Over/Under alternate in 23 straight games, suggesting the Over is due to cash since the Under hit last night. And the Philadelphia Phillies have won 11 consecutive road games after going just 13-23 on the road through their first 36. They have a chance to sweep the AL-best Tampa Bay Rays on the road Thursday.     

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Thursday (odds via DraftKings, PointsBet, and FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Thursday’s MLB schedule and odds

(odds via DraftKings)

  • Cincinnati Reds (+100) vs. Washington Nationals (-120)
  • Oakland Athletics (+140) vs. Detroit Tigers (-165)
  • Chicago Cubs (-105) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-115)
  • Philadelphia Phillies (+145) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-170)
  • St. Louis Cardinals (+115) vs. Miami Marlins (-135)
  • Baltimore Orioles (-125) vs. New York Yankees (+105)
  • Kansas City Royals (+185) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-215)
  • Texas Rangers (-135) vs. Boston Red Sox (+115)
  • Seattle Mariners (OFF) vs. Houston Astros 
  • Toronto Blue Jays (-125) vs. Chicago White Sox (+105) Game 1
  • Toronto Blue Jays (OFF) vs. Chicago White Sox Game 2
  • New York Mets (+115) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-135)
  • Pittsburgh Pirates (+195) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-230)

Thursday’s MLB best bets

  • Player prop: Josh Jung Over 1.5 total bases (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Red Sox ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Tanner Bibee to record a win (+140 via DraftKings) vs. Royals ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to record 2+ RBI (+380 via FanDuel) vs. Mets ⭐⭐⭐
  • Total: Cubs-Brewers Over 8 (-110 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Thursday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Josh Jung Over 1.5 total bases vs. Red Sox (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Josh Jung’s incredible rookie season has not gone unnoticed, as he and Corbin Carroll were named the first rookie All-Star starters since Aaron Judge in 2017. The Texas Rangers third baseman ranks top-58 in OPS and batting average and top-20 in home runs and looks to improve those numbers against Boston Red Sox righty Kutter Crawford, who ranks in the 52nd percentile in xSLG and 41st in barrels.

However, most of Crawford’s success has come against left-handed batters, as he has held lefties to a .188 OBA with a 10.8 K/9 rate versus a .280 OBA and 6.6 K/9 rate against right-handed batters. Thus, Crawford’s inability to generate strikeouts at the same rate against righties should help Jung’s chances of success, as he leads the team with 103 strikeouts.

This is a four-star play, as Crawford’s ERA at Fenway Park is 2.49 runs higher than his road ERA, and Jung has gone Over his total bases prop in five of his previous eight games.

We are getting slightly more value on this wager at DraftKings, as Caesars and FanDuel offer -117 and -120 odds, respectively.

Player prop: Tanner Bibee to record a win vs. Royals (+140 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The Kansas City Royals broke a streak of 15 consecutive losses in games started by Jordan Lyles with a win his last time out against the AL-best Tampa Bay Rays. However, it is not like Lyles pitched all that well, allowing four runs and tying a season-high with eight hits allowed in six innings. Opponents have averaged 7.2 runs per game in Lyles’ last 11 starts, which should be plenty of offensive support for Tanner Bibee, who has won half of his six home starts while pitching to a 2.38 ERA and .195 OBA. 

This is a three-star play, as per Mike Kurland of The Athletic, Bibee has not allowed a single barrel with a 2.90 xFIP and 3.47 SIERA in his last two starts. Much of that results from a new-look slider with more velocity and less movement. The Cleveland Guardians have won 70.5% of their previous 61 home meetings with the Royals, and we expect Bibee to lead them to another victory.

DraftKings provides bettors with an extra 10 cents of return compared to Caesars, who offers +130 odds for Bibee to earn the victory.

Player prop: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to record 2+ RBI vs. Mets (+380 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

In lieu of the traditional shops that mainly offer wagers on batters to go Over or Under 0.5 RBIs, we are taking advantage of FanDuel’s offer for Gurriel Jr. to drive in multiple runs, given the high projected game total (10) and Carlos Carrasco’s poor numbers against right-handed hitters.

Carrasco has allowed an OBA of .299 against righties compared to .237 against lefties, and the power numbers are even more concerning, with lefties hitting three home runs against the New York Mets starter in 24 innings versus righties’ nine home runs against him in 29 innings.

Gurriel has hit a home run in three of his last six games and has produced multiple RBIs in nine of the previous 17 games in which he has driven in at least one run. In addition, Gurriel is slugging .516 versus right-handed pitchers (.416 against lefties), so we are getting great value on him to drive in at least two runs.

Thursday’s MLB game picks

Total: Cubs-Brewers Over 8 (-110 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers combined for 14 and 13 runs in the first two games of this four-game series, and narrowly backdoored the Over yesterday after Milwaukee’s late bullpen blunders. We expect that amount of bullpen usage to have lingering effects Thursday, forcing both managers to leave their starting pitchers in longer.

Marcus Stroman has a 1.10 ERA or lower individually in four of the first five innings of games, but his ERA jumps to 4.30 and 4.50 in the sixth and seventh innings. Freddy Peralta has been consistently worse throughout games this season, but his 9.00 fourth-inning ERA and 6.75 sixth-inning ERA are especially troubling.

This line of 8 runs is low in large part because of Peralta’s history against Chicago, holding current Cubs hitters to a .189/.286/.370 slash line in 74 combined at-bats. However, Peralta is in awful form, not having won any of his previous seven starts while pitching to a 5.45 ERA, while his strikeout rate is on pace to decline for the fourth consecutive season. Thus, Peralta is capable of allowing four-plus runs himself against a lineup that ranks in the top 10 in BABIP this season, making this a four-star play.

With FanDuel offering an O/U of 8.5 runs, we are taking advantage of the better number at PointsBet, the only shop not charging more in juice to back the Over.

MLB best bets made 7/6/2023 at 7:32 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”