Friday's MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Which Pitchers Will Shine to End the Week?
MLB has a full docket of games on Friday after Thursday's getaway day, and we're offering our top MLB player props and expert picks based on the best MLB odds.
Friday has gifted us a full day of MLB action, including some afternoon baseball.
Play starts at 2:20 p.m. ET from Wrigley Field, with the Chicago Cubs hosting the Milwaukee Brewers.
The evening slate features an exciting showdown between two of the best teams in the American League. The New York Yankees welcome the surprising Detroit Tigers to Yankee Stadium, with first pitch expected for 7:05 p.m. ET.
The night concludes with a massive game between two World Series odds favorites as the Atlanta Braves head to the West Coast to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers. First pitch for Friday's main event will come at 10:10 p.m. ET.
Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Friday (MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Friday’s MLB expert picks
- Reese Olson Under 5.5 strikeouts (-140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jose Soriano Under 4.5 strikeouts (+108 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Tanner Bibee Under 6.5 strikeouts (+106 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Ronel Blanco Under 6.5 strikeouts (-127 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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MLB player props
Reese Olson Under 5.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 5.5 (-165) | Under 5.5 (-166) | Under 5.5 (-161) | Under 5.5 (-152) | Under 5.5 (-140) |
Game info: Tigers vs. Yankees | Moneyline: Yankees (-165 via Betway) | Total: Over 7.5 (-120)/Under 7.5 (+100) via Betway | Start time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Reese Olson has somewhat changed his style this season, pitching to contact to induce more ground balls. However, he's sacrificed a bit of his strikeout stuff as a result, as he's managing just 8.26 punchouts per nine innings this season after finishing 2023 with 8.94.
Meanwhile, the Yankees have been surprisingly good at avoiding the dreaded walk of shame back to the dugout this season. They own the eighth-best strikeout rate in the majors and the best walk rate. The latter is important, too, because Olson is averaging 3.49 BB/9, so the Yankees could work him into deep counts and chase him early.
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Olson is projected for just 4.64 strikeouts on Friday, nearly 1 1/2 strikeouts below what he needs to clear this total. That's why, despite this Under being juiced heavily to -140, we're still getting roughly 15% positive expected value through bet365's odds.
Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, is already trading at -185 after opening its Under at -142.
Best odds: -140 via bet365
Jose Soriano Under 4.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 4.5 (-110) | Under 4.5 (-102) | OFF | Under 4.5 (-106) | Under 4.5 (-105) |
Game info: Angels vs. Guardians | Moneyline: Guardians (-180 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (+105)/Under 8.5 (-125) via Betway | Start time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Los Angeles Angels right-hander Jose Soriano has been a strange pitcher to bet on this season. He hasn't been good, but he's still managed to go Over this total in three of his four starts. However, walk issues continue to plague him, and after walking (pun intended) a fine line in his first three starts, Soriano was punished last time out against the Minnesota Twins, lasting just 1 2/3 innings.
Soriano gets the Cleveland Guardians on Friday, who strike out at the fourth-lowest rate in the majors. The Guardians' offense has been much better this season than many expected, and they'll be hungry to get some runs on the board early after dropping their last series to the lowly Houston Astros.
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Soriano is projected for 4.43 strikeouts on Friday, which isn't a huge cushion from what he'd need to go Over 4.5 strikeouts. However, these plus-money odds at BetRivers still make this a 14.5% +EV bet.
As you can see, none of our other best sports betting sites are offering even money to back Soriano's Under, so be sure to get this price quickly before it disappears.
Best odds: +108 via BetRivers
Tanner Bibee Under 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 6.5 (+100) | Under 6.5 (-104) | OFF | Under 6.5 (+106) | Under 6.5 (-115) |
Game info: Angels vs. Guardians | Moneyline: Guardians (-180 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (+105)/Under 8.5 (-125) via Betway | Start time: 7:10 p.m. ET
We stay in Cleveland for this one and are hitting the Under for the Guardians' starter, too.
Tanner Bibee bounced back nicely in his last two starts following some slightly underwhelming pitching to begin the season. He put together his best performance of the young campaign in his last time out, holding the Atlanta Braves to just two hits over seven innings, racking up nine Ks.
However, we think the Angels are being a bit disrespected here, and it's likely due to the absence of Mike Trout (speaking of Trout, be sure to check out why it's time to stop betting on him to win MVP to save yourself some money next year).
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However, the projections tell a clearer story of what Bibee's total on Friday should probably be - 5.5 strikeouts rather than 6.5. Based on his average strikeout projection of 5.37, we're getting roughly 43% +EV on this bet. The Angels are extremely sketchy and I've lost plenty of strikeout Unders against them this season, but this value is too good to pass up.
Pinnacle opened with Bibee's Under at +111, and it's since been smashed to -121. It should continue to move, and there will likely be no plus-money prices remaining at our best sports betting apps very shortly.
Best odds: +106 via Caesars
Ronel Blanco Under 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 6.5 (-130) | Under 6.5 (-142) | Under 6.5 (-133) | Under 6.5 (-137) | Under 6.5 (-130) |
Game info: Mariners vs. Astros | Moneyline: Astros (-115 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (+105)/Under 8.5 (-125) via Betway | Start time: 8:10 p.m. ET
We cap our picks off with a fourth Under. I know, it's not fun to root against success, but just think of it this way: we're not rooting against the pitchers, we're rooting for hitting. Hopefully, in this game, we get lots of it from the Seattle Mariners.
Seattle is about as reliable as that friend who's always 30-plus minutes late (it's me, I'm that friend). The Mariners are striking out at the highest rate in the league this season, but sometimes they look really good! Which Mariners team will show up against Blanco and the Astros? No one knows.
However, we're making this bet off the average projection from all three of our trusted models, which are very aligned on Blanco's strikeout total Friday. His average projection is 5.69, and based on that, we're getting roughly 16.5% +EV on this bet.
For its part, Pinnacle is already trading at -163, and our best sportsbooks are as short as -142.
Best odds: -127 via BetRivers
MLB player props made Friday at 8 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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