Skip to main content
Houston Astros left fielder Yordan Alvarez releases his bat after hitting a three-run home run against the Toronto Blue Jays in the fifth inning at Rogers Centre. We're backing Alvarez in our MLB Player Props.
Houston Astros left fielder Yordan Alvarez releases his bat after hitting a three-run home run against the Toronto Blue Jays in the fifth inning at Rogers Centre. Photo by Dan Hamilton/USA TODAY Sports via Imagn.

We're looking at the plethora of poor pitchers taking the mound on Wednesday as we offer our top MLB player props and expert picks based on the best MLB odds.

With 15 MLB games on the slate for Wednesday, two of the early games - both set for a 6:40 p.m. ET opening pitch - are the target of today's player props.

The St. Louis Cardinals head to the Steel City to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates in NL action, while the Boston Red Sox fly south to play the Miami Marlins for an inter-league game.

Just like with those two games, struggling pitchers are getting the start against sluggers playing at an All-Star level in the other two games we're focusing on.

First, it's MLB MVP odds contender Yordan Alvarez and the Houston Astros against the Toronto Blue Jays at 7:07 p.m. ET. Then, it's the Minnesota Twins, who continue to climb the World Series odds, taking on the Detroit Tigers at 8:10 p.m. ET.

Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Wedneday.

Wednesday’s MLB expert picks

MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

MLB player props

Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
OddsOver 1.5 (-120)Over 1.5 (-125)OFFOver 1.5 (-119)Over 1.5 (-115)

Game info: Cardinals vs. Pirates | Moneyline: Pirates (-130 via bet365) | Total: Over 8 (-120)/Under 8 (+100) via bet365 | Start time: 6:40 p.m. ET

Probably the least well-known player I'm backing today, Reynolds is quietly turning in another All-Star season. The Pirates outfielder's play has been overshadowed by Paul Skenes mania - the runaway favorite by the MLB Rookie of the Year odds - but he's coming off a dominant June.

This past month, the 29-year-old slashed .330/.388/.604 with a whopping 64 total bases and 15 extra-base hits in 26 games. It's not hyperbole to say he was one of the most dominant bats in the league in June averaging 2.5 total bases per game. 

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or casino betting site. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

That momentum should carry over into July for the one-time All-Star, especially against this Cardinals team. St. Louis is set to start Miles Mikolas, who just got obliterated by the Cincinnati Reds. He gave up 12 hits and 10 runs in that start to take his ERA to 5.32. I don't expect it to come down against Pittsburgh with how he matches up with Reynolds.

Mikolas uses his four-seamer (25.9%) and sinker (24.4%) most frequently. Well, Reynolds is cranking both with a .337 average and .515 SLG against four-seamers and a .320 average and .500 SLG against sinkers. That's why these odds imply a 53.49% win probability, with a $10 bet paying out $18.70.

Best odds: -115 via bet365

Jarren Duran Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
OddsOver 1.5 (-130)OFFOver 1.5 (-128)OFFOver 1.5 (-125)

Game info: Red Sox vs. Marlins | Moneyline: Red Sox (-140 via bet365) | Total: Over 8 (-120)/Under 8 (+100) via bet365 | Start time: 6:40 p.m. ET

For all of his success, Reynolds wasn't the hottest non-MVP candidate at the plate in June, that title goes to Duran. The Red Sox outfielder is poised to make his first All-Star team this season and has been Boston's most consistent bat - he leads the team in hits (99) and runs (57). 

In 25 games this past month, he slashed .365/.420/.636 with 80 combined hits, runs, and RBIs, averaging 3.2 per game. He's shown no signs of slowing down either, with home runs in three straight games, including Tuesday in Miami.

Do we really think the poor ol' Marlins are going to be the team to stop him? I certainly don't expect Trevor Rogers and his 4.87 ERA to get the job done against Duran. The 26-year-old Rogers has four pitches in his arsenal - four-seamer (30.4%), sinker (24.6%), changeup (23.6%), slider (21.4%) - and Duran can mash 'em all.

Against all four pitches, Duran has a .522 SLG or better and is batting over .400 against both sinkers and changeups this season. These are the four pitches he hits best, which is why the odds imply a 55.56% probability this prop cashes. A $10 winning bet pays an $8 profit.

Best odds: -125 via bet365

Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 home run ⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
OddsOver 0.5 (+270)Over 0.5 (+310)Over 0.5 (+280)Over 0.5 (+285)Over 0.5 (+270)

Game info: Astros vs. Blue Jays | Moneyline: Astros (-115 via bet365) | Total: Over 8.5 (-110)/Under 8.5 (-110) via bet365 | Start time: 7:07 p.m. ET

Just like with Tuesday, when I backed Pete Alonso to hit a dinger - not to flex, but he did - I recommend placing just half a unit on this home run prop because of the length of these odds. But while they're long, I love this matchup for Alvarez.

The Astros' slugger has been a dynamo to start July, with homers in back-to-back games against the Blue Jays and five RBIs in the series. Normally, I'd be wary of betting on a bat to mash one for the third straight game, but this is all about the pitcher matchup.

Bet $5, Win $200 in Bonus Bets

New customers only. Deposit min. $5. Place first bet of $5+ and get $200 in Bonus Bets if the bet wins (within 72 hours).

Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or casino betting site. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

Toronto is trotting Yusei Kikuchi on to the mound. He's given up 12 home runs in 17 starts this season with five of them coming in his last three outings. He's in the middle of his worst stretch of the season and catching Alvarez at his best. The Astros star slashed .349/.430/.709 in June and has been particularly monstrous against lefties like Kikuchi.

The Blue Jays starter also happens to lean heavily on his four-seamer (47.8%), and 10 of Alvarez's 18 dingers this season have come against fastballs. These odds may only imply a 24.39% hit probability, but they pay a $15.50 profit on a $5 bet.

Best odds: +310 via FanDuel

Carlos Correa Over 1.5 hits ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
OddsOver 1.5 (+190)Over 1.5 (+145)OFFOver 1.5 (+184)Over 1.5 (+200)

Game info: Tigers vs. Twins | Moneyline: Twins (-170 via bet365) | Total: Over 9 (-105)/Under 9 (-115) via bet365 | Start time: 8:10 p.m. ET

The pitcher with the highest ERA this season that I'm betting against today is Tigers' rookie Keider Montero. The 23-year-old has had a bizarre start to his career, essentially getting called up once a month just to get shelled and sent back down to the Toledo Mud Hens - where he only has a 5.03 ERA.

He's nearly doubled his AAA ERA in the majors, though, with a 9.35 ERA in two starts. In those two starts, he's allowed 10 hits, nine earned runs, and three dingers in 8 2/3 innings of work. With how explosive Correa's bat has been for the Twins, the trend could continue for Montero.

The two-time All-Star slashed .388/.441/.582 in June with 38 hits in 25 games. And he's kept up his hammering ways to start July with a homer last night against the Tigers and should keep that trend going against Montero. The Tigers' rook predominantly uses his four-seamer (43.6%) and slider (34.8%), and Correa is batting .339 or better against both with an over .528 SLG.

With 12 multi-hit games in his last 23 outings (52.2%), these odds are a steal. They only imply a 33.33% win probability while paying a $20 profit on a $10 winning bet.

Best odds: +200 via bet365

MLB player props made Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related pages