Astros vs. Phillies Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Tuesday, Sept. 8

RHPs Hayden Wesneski and Andrew Painter square off today in the first game of a three-game series as we break down our Astros vs. Phillies prediction.

My MLB picks feature Astros ML (+120), Kyle Schwarber Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+110), and Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 home runs (+260). First pitch from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is set for 6:40 p.m. ET (TBS, MLB.TV), with the Phillies listed as a -130 betting favorite.

⚾ Astros vs. Phillies picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

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🏆 Who will win Astros vs. Phillies?

I like the Astros to beat the Phillies 4-3 today in Philadelphia. The Phillies are the better overall team according to the World Series odds, but their disadvantage at starting pitcher today should create problems for them. Painter has a 5.55 ERA across 19 starts and two relief appearances this season, while Wesneski has a 3.18 ERA across seven starts.

Score prediction: Astros 4, Phillies 3

💰 Astros vs. Phillies prediction & best bet

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Astros ML (+120)

While the Phillies rank higher in my power rankings overall - Philadelphia is seventh, while Houston is ninth - the Astros' advantage at starting pitcher should make their moneyline odds shorter than +120.

Wesneski has allowed just one earned run across his last three starts (17 innings pitched). Even more impressive, two of those starts were against the Yankees and White Sox, who both average 4.52 or more runs per game. This should be a quiet night for the Phillies.

Astros ML (+120) at FanDuel is the best line available among the top MLB betting sites.

🔥 Best Astros vs. Phillies player prop bet

Kyle Schwarber Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+110)

I hate when betting writers say they like to fade the public. Fading the public is not a profitable strategy because “the public” - which is not a monolith - doesn’t lose at a high enough rate to overcome the vig.

However, the market is overreacting to Schwarber homering in three straight games, and I have these fair (no-vig) odds shorter than +110. Schwarber has been among the hottest hitters in MLB across the last three games, but he also went hitless in each of the four games before this streak - let’s not overreact.

Schwarber Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+110) at BetMGM is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.  

💣 Astros vs. Phillies home run prediction

Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run (+260)

Yes, Alvarez is tied with Junior Caminero for the most home runs (38) in the American League, which is always nice, but he also has a favorable pitching matchup today.

Alvarez is slashing .333/.467/.636 against right-handed pitching, and 28 of his 38 home runs have come against righties. Add in that Alvarez ranks in the 98th percentile in barrel rate, while Painter ranks in the 45th percentile in the same stat, and these odds should be shorter than +260.

Alvarez Over 0.5 home runs (+260) at BetMGM is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.  

📊 Live Astros vs. Phillies odds

🚑 Astros vs. Phillies injuries

📺 How to watch Astros vs. Phillies

• Date: Tuesday, Sept. 8
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)
• TV: TBS
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Astros starter: Hayden Wesneski (4-1, 3.18 ERA)
• Phillies starter: Andrew Painter (3-8, 5.55 ERA)