2022 The American Express Expert Picks and PGA Tour Bet Slips

The PGA Tour returns to the mainland for the 2022 American Express, and our golf experts offer up their top picks and betting cards for the week.

The event will be played over a three-course rotation in La Quinta, CA, consisting of the Stadium Course, La Quinta Country Club, and the Nicklaus Tournament Course. The cut will take place after 54 holes and each of the remaining 65 golfers will tee it up on the Stadium Course for Sunday's final round.

Si Woo Kim returns as the defending champion, but he'll need to top world No. 1 Jon Rahm and defending FedEx Cup champion Patrick Cantlay.

Below, our PGA Tour experts offer up their top American Express picks and predictions.

American Express Expert Picks

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SEE ALSO: The American Express Betting Preview

The American Express Picks to Win

Patrick Cantlay (+900 via BetMGM)

Last year’s tournament runner-up surged up the leaderboard with a final round of 11-under par 61 on the Stadium Course. Cantlay went on to win the Memorial Tournament and the BMW Championship, en route to the FedEx Cup. While Rahm is the No. 1 player in the Official World Golf Ranking and the tournament favorite, Cantlay’s being offered at nearly twice the odds at most books.

He started his season with a fourth-place finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions in Hawaii. He leads this field with 3.61 total strokes gained per round on the Stadium Course, and he was better than Rahm on and around the greens last season. - McLaren

Tony Finau (+2500 via BetMGM)

Finau is entering his eighth season on the PGA Tour and has two wins to his name, with his most recent victory coming at the Northern Trust in August. In addition to his 10 top-five finishes in the past two seasons, he averaged 1.43 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green for the 2020-21 season.

The success at the Northern Trust will relieve some pressure off Finau going forward, which will lead to multiple wins in 2022. As "Top Five Tony" fades from the narrative, so will the pressure that comes with it.

Last season, Finau finished fourth in this event, and he lost strokes putting. This is a common occurrence for Finau, but he could easily win the tournament if he sinks a couple more putts. Rahm and Cantlay fit the American Express profile better, and their odds reflect this; however, at this point in the season, I would rather play someone with the skillset of Finau at +2500 than the shorter shots of Rahm and Cantlay.

In choosing Finau this week, I am playing the +2500 value compared to the rest of the field. BetMGM offers the best price on Finau. He is as short as +2000 at DraftKings. - Metler

Abraham Ancer (+3300 via PointsBet)

After winning a WGC title last season, the Mexican has dramatically improved his game and has fared well in his previous appearances at this event (T-5, T-2, T-18). 

Ancer missed the cut last weekend at the Sony Open, but that shouldn’t deter us from backing him at PGA West. 

Historically a volatile putter, Ancer couldn’t sink one into the nearby Pacific Ocean throughout the recent Hawaii swing. However, last weekend, he did gain strokes from tee to green, so we should expect his solid ball-striking to continue.

Due to the unconventional format, two of the four rounds this weekend will be played on the Pete Dye-designed Stadium Course. 

Over the past 24 rounds played, Ancer leads the tour with plus-45.7 total strokes gained on Pete Dye tracks. 

If Ancer can rediscover his stroke with the flat stick, look for him to be in contention come Sunday. - Anderson

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The American Express Long Shots

Russell Knox (+10000 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Knox is offered as low as +7000 to win at SI Sportsbook. He tied for seventh at the Sony Open in Hawaii last week with 1.27 Strokes Gained: Approach per round, while also gaining strokes in every other key area.

He tied for 16th last year despite a final round of plus-1, 73 on the Stadium Course. - McLaren

Wesley Bryan (+35000 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Bryan missed most of the 2020-21 PGA Tour season due to a wrist injury, and he played in only eight tournaments last calendar year. As a result of his injury and not his performance in 2021, he feels like a forgotten player. During the 11 events he played last season, he averaged 0.25 SG: Approach. Having won the 2017 RBC Heritage, the 31-year-old is no stranger to success on the PGA Tour when healthy.

This week, Bryan will putt on Bermudagrass greens, where he gained 1.02 strokes per round last week at the Sony Open. Bryan also finished with a 0.72 SG: Approach. With his +35000 odds, playing on Bermudagrass greens, and his recent SG: Approach form, I am very interested in Bryan as a long shot.

FanDuel offers the most favorable number. At sportsbooks such as DraftKings, BetMGM, and PointsBet, his odds are +25000. - Metler

Michael Thompson (+9000 via DraftKings)

Thompson is coming off an impressive T-5 last weekend at the Sony Open, finishing in the top-five in three statistical categories - SG: Approach, SG: Around the Green, and third in scrambling. 

He has long struggled off the tee, but the open desert format at PGA West will be more forgiving, neutralizing the adverse effects of his poor driving. 

Thompson has enjoyed playing PGA West in the past. Last year, he finished T-5, and in 2019 tied for ninth.  

The American Express is notorious for long-shot winners, so I’ll be looking to back Thompson’s momentum at near triple-digit odds. - Anderson

SEE ALSO: PGA Tour Money List vs. Race to Dubai

The American Express Top Matchup Picks

Scottie Scheffler (-110) vs. Sungjae Im (via BetMGM)

Im’s coming off a missed cut last week in which he lost 1.17 strokes on approach per round over his 36 holes. Scheffler will play his first event of 2022 after a fall stretch that saw him record two second-place finishes and a fourth-place showing in just six events.

Scheffler was better than Im both off the tee and around the greens last season. - McLaren

Adam Hadwin (-110) vs. Alex Noren (via DraftKings)

The Canadian Hadwin enters the week 152nd in the OWGR. It wasn't Hadwin's year in 2021, as he missed five of his last seven cuts of the season. It has been a positive start to the 2021-22 season for the winner of the 2017 Valspar Championship with 0.38 total strokes gaind per round. His most impressive finish of the fall swing was a T-6 at the Shriners Children's Open.

Noren ranks 75th in the world and has 11 victories on the European Tour. He missed the cut at the PGA Tour's RSM Classic in his most recent event, and his best finish of the fall was a T-18 at the Zozo Championship.

Hadwin is my choice at -110, since I believe Noren's statistics raise a lot of red flags. Although he has a higher ranking in the OWGR, Hadwin's profile at The American Express is better. With 11 rounds played in this event, Hadwin averages 2.01 strokes gained. In his last two appearances, Noren lost strokes on the green. In his last four events on the PGA Tour, he has lost strokes on approach.

Hadwin is playing better right now, and his game suits this tournament. - Metler

Seamus Power (-125) vs. Russell Henley (via DraftKings)

If you missed the conclusion of last week’s Sony Open, both gentlemen finished in the top three. Power continued his breakout performance, carrying over his hot play from last season, and Henley blew a five-shot lead on the final nine holes, before losing in a playoff to Hideki Matsuyama.

Though tough to handicap human emotion, we can assume last week’s meltdown may have had an adverse effect on Henley. Additionally, he has poor history at the AmEx – missing the cut four times and with a T-49 as his best finish. 

I’ll be looking to back Power at a short price over the vulnerable Henley. - Anderson

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The American Express Top Prop Picks

Top European: Jon Rahm (+125 via FanDuel)

This is free money territory. No other book is offering better than even money for Rahm to be the top European. It’s an extremely weak pool this week, as many of the top European golfers are competing in the DP World Tour’s Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship.

Rahm’s top competition in this nationality prop is world No. 49 Power. He’s +550 across the board, while Rahm ranges from +100 to this +125 at FanDuel. - McLaren

Top English: Aaron Rai (+270 via FanDuel)

Rai won the Honma Hong Kong Open by one stroke in 2019, and in 2020, he won the Scottish Open in a playoff against Tommy Fleetwood. Having spent the 2021 season on the European Tour, he will be joining the PGA Tour in 2022. Coming off a missed cut at the Sony Open, he ranks 105th in the OWGR.

Rai's PGA Tour debut has been impressive so far. Prior to the Sony Open, he made three straight top 20s. Despite being cut last week, he still gained strokes on approach and off the tee. It is his accuracy and ball striking that make him a suitable play for the American Express.

I like Rai's +270 because Justin Rose's +105 seems too short to me. The odds are skewed because of the brand name bias on Rose and lack of familiarity with Rai. In reality, they should be much closer.

FanDuel has him at +270, which is his best price. At DraftKings, he is +250, and those are his worst odds. - Metler

Top 20: Russel Knox (+310 via FanDuel)

Knox capped off an impressive weekend at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu with a bogey-free, five-under 65 on Sunday. He gained 7.12 strokes tee-to-green in the tournament en route to a T-7 finish. 

He has a solid history at this event, finishing in the top-20 on three separate occasions. 

In a top-heavy field headlined by Rahm and Cantlay, I’m looking for Knox to sustain his solid play and be in contention come the weekend. - Anderson

The American Express Fades

Talor Gooch

Gooch is up to No. 31 in the OWGR after a stretch of golf that began with a T-4 finish at the Fortinet Championship in mid-September. He won the RSM Classic in the fall, where he gained entry to the Sentry Tournament of Champions for the first time, and he tied for 15th against many of the Tour’s best.

However, this is a markedly stronger field than those he has played against over the last few months. He averaged just 0.16 SG: Approach per round last week en route to a T-27 finish. I may sprinkle on his +275 odds to miss the cut, but I’m strongly fading him on any outright tickets. - McLaren

Patrick Reed

The winner of the 2018 Masters currently ranks 26th in the world. In seven events this season, Reed has lost 1.18 strokes per round from tee to green, and his only positive strokes gained is putting (+0.35).

My prediction for Reed at the American Express this week is that he will miss the cut at +180 via DraftKings. PXG is his most recent sponsorship deal, and adjusting to new clubs takes time.

PXG announced during the Sentry Tournament of Champions that Reed would receive an additional $500,000 for every tournament he wins with a PXG driver. According to his fellow PGA Tour golfers, using a PXG Driver would cost him over $500,000 this season. Reed had minus-0.69 SG: Off-the-Tee in his first tournament using his new PXG Driver.  - Metler

Adam Hadwin

The masses will be going bonkers over Hadwin as a long shot this week. The Canadian has a stellar course history here, finishing in the top-five three times since 2016. He also shot a round of 59 at La Quinta in 2017. 

Despite the stunning finishes, Hadwin has routinely lost strokes off the tee along with lackluster scrambling over the last year-plus. 

He will no doubt be a popular pick, but we can’t hang onto what happened years ago as he is not in solid form. - Anderson

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.