3M Odds & Favorites 2024: Finau, Burns Lead Post-Major Field to TPC Twins Cities

There's plenty of value in this week's PGA Tour betting markets with Tony Finau the favorite by the 3M Open odds to win for the second time at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minn.

Finau carries odds of +1100 (8.33% implied win probability) to win the 3M Open for the second time in three years. He cashed outright tickets at +1400 with a winning score of minus-17 two years ago. Lee Hodges (+8000) won at minus-24 last year.

Finau enters this week at No. 19 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) following a missed cut in the British Open. He's looking for his first victory of 2024.

3M Open odds

3M Open odds from our best golf betting sites as of Wednesday at 9:30 a.m. ET. | 🔥 = best available odds | ❄️ = worst available odds

3M Open picks: My first click

Akshay Bhatia (+2800)

Pick made Monday at 7 a.m. ET. Odds may differ from those above.

Bhatia was being touted as a popular long-shot pick last week but missed the cut at Royal Troon. It snapped a strong run of play in which he finished T-16 in the U.S. Open, T-5 in the Travelers Championship, and T-2 in the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

The two-time PGA Tour winner will make his professional debut at TPC Twin Cities this week. He sets up as a strong course fit, as he ranks among the field leaders in driving accuracy across his last 16 measured rounds. He's gaining strokes per round in all key metrics, including this week's key stats of strokes gained: approach and SG: around-the-green.

The +2800 odds would return a profit of $280 on a winning $10 bet. I'd expect this number to shorten through the week because of the fear of some top contenders withdrawing before Thursday following their trans-Atlantic flights. Bhatia failing to make the weekend in Scotland will play to his advantage this week.

I'd bet Bhatia to win down to +2500 and higher.

Best odds: +2800 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 3.45%

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3M Open favorite

Tony Finau (+1100)

Finau had rung up three straight top-10 finishes - and five straight top 20s - in the U.S. prior to his short stay in Scotland during the year's final major. Those prior finishes included a T-18 in the PGA Championship and a T-3 in the U.S. Open.

Finau is one of the very few to play the 3M Open all five years of its existence. In addition to his 2022 victory, he tied for third in 2020 and for seventh last year. He's averaged 2.05 true strokes gained on the field per round across 20 total rounds.

The 2022 3M Open champion won with odds a little longer than this, but those were by far the lowest odds on a winner of this event. Hodges won at 80-1 last year and the other three winners all had odds around 125-1. TPC Twin Cities' relative ease helps to level the playing field.

Bettors are better off aiming higher in the outright market in the wake of the final major of 2024.

Best odds: +1100 via bet365 | Implied probability: 8.33%

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3M Open info

• Where: TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, Minn.
• When: Thursday, July 25 - Sunday, July 28
• Field: 156
• Favorite: Tony Finau (+1100 via bet365)
• 2023 champion: Lee Hodges (-24)
• Purse: $8.1 million
• FedEx Cup points: 500

TPC Twin Cities course profile

• Par: 71
• Length: 7,431 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Architect: Arnold Palmer

Past 3M Open winners

Historical odds via golfodds.com

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Once you've determined your preferred bet types, conduct thorough research on players, course conditions, recent form, and other pertinent factors that could influence outcomes.

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