Vanderbilt vs. Texas Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 10 Betting Preview
My Vanderbilt vs. Texas prediction envisions a closely contested battle between ranked teams in a game with huge College Football Playoff implications.
No. 19 Texas needs the win to avoid falling out of the CFP conversation, while No. 9 Vanderbilt would assert itself as a legitimate national contender with this win on the road. The action kicks off from Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas, on Saturday at noon ET (ABC). Texas is a 3-point betting favorite. Let's break down this marquee showdown as part of our college football predictions for Week 10.
✅ Vanderbilt vs. Texas prediction & expert picks
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💵 Best Vanderbilt vs. Texas bets
📊 Vanderbilt vs. Texas odds
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🏈 Vanderbilt vs. Texas preview & score prediction
Texas has underachieved for bettors, going 2-6 ATS this season. Vanderbilt is 6-2 ATS and 2-1 ATS as an underdog, averaging an impressive plus-16.8 PPG margin against the spread in those situations.
Vanderbilt isn’t always winning pretty, but the Commodores’ efficiency on third down (50.70%) ranks eighth in the nation, while Texas’ offense lags behind at 38.46% (74th in FBS).
A suddenly leaky Texas pass defense?
In addition to the Texas offense struggling to find consistent footing under Arch Manning, the Longhorns have become susceptible to giving up passing volume to opposing offenses.
Texas has permitted an average of 283.3 passing yards per game over its past three contests. Though Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia hasn’t thrown for much volume in recent weeks, he’s capable of breaking down this Texas secondary if it continues to show these holes.
The best odds on Vanderbilt moneyline come from Caesars at +140, with an implied probability at those odds of 41.67%. The profit on a winning $10 bet would be $14.
Score prediction: Vanderbilt 23, Texas 20
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🆚 Vanderbilt vs. Texas matchup to watch
Diego Pavia vs. Texas defense
Texas’ pass defense isn’t the unit that it was last season, but the Longhorns are still tough on the ground, allowing just 80.8 rushing yards per game (third in FBS).
Diego Pavia’s Heisman campaign didn’t take a hit last week against Missouri, but it probably should have: He was a non-factor in Vandy’s 17-10 win, being held to 129 passing yards and 20 rushing yards on eight carries.
Though Texas let Kentucky QB Cutter Boley scamper for 45 rushing yards, that’s the outlier compared to their usual performance against mobile QBs.
If Texas watches the film from the Missouri game, it has the athletes to hold Pavia Under his rushing total in this matchup.
Best prop bet: Diego Pavia Under 47.5 rushing yards (-115 via BetMGM)
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📈 Vanderbilt vs. Texas betting trends
| Vanderbilt | Statistic | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | W-L record | 6-2 |
| 6-2 | ATS record | 2-6 |
| 4-4 | O/U record | 3-5 |
| 7.2 | Yards per play | 5.6 |
| 5.2 | Yards allowed per play | 4.4 |
| +0.5 per game | Turnover margin | +0.9 per game |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 4-1 |
| W, 17-10 vs. Missouri | Previous result | W, 45-38 vs. Mississippi St. |
🌤️ Vanderbilt vs. Texas weather
The forecasted temperature for this matchup on Saturday in Austin is 72 °F with a 55% chance of precipitation.
With potential thunderstorms expected for parts of the area, there is a possibility of a lightning delay during the game. Winds are expected at 7 mph ENE with gusts up to 21 mph.
📺 How to watch Vanderbilt vs. Texas
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 1
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Location: Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, Texas)
- TV: ABC
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