UTSA vs. Texas Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 3
Following a massive victory against Michigan last week, Texas will try to carry that momentum into Week 3 as significant favorites over UTSA, but will the Roadrunners be able to keep up?
Texas made a statement in Week 2. Its 31-12 win against Michigan (which was ranked No. 10) was its biggest margin of victory in a road game against a top-10 team since 1979.
The Longhorns head back home now ranked No. 2, which serves as their highest ranking since 2009. They've covered their first two games, moving to Week 3 with a 2-0 ATS record.
However, are the best sports betting sites overvaluing the Longhorns this week? Savvy bettors can take advantage of this and ride with the underdogs in a high-profile, non-conference tilt.
This is just one of the many exciting games Saturday night, so be sure to visit our college football Week 3 predictions for all your betting needs!
Best UTSA vs. Texas picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: UTSA +36 (-112 via DraftKings) vs. Texas ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop pick: Jaydon Blue Under 81.5 rushing yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
UTSA vs. Texas against the spread prediction: Week 3
UTSA to cover the spread: +36 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
UTSA vs. Texas opening odds:
- UTSA +34 (-110 via DraftKings)
- Texas -34 (-110 via DraftKings)
There is no doubt that Texas is a bona fide national title contender given how it has looked through the first two weeks, but it is still facing a UTSA team that won Conference USA in back-to-back seasons before joining the American.
The Roadrunners were also picked to finish second in the AAC preseason media poll and garnered four of the 30 first-place votes, and they should not be overlooked in the wake of Texas’s big win.
UTSA undervalued after bad loss
UTSA is playing its second straight game against a team from in-state. Last week’s matchup against Texas State drew a lot of pre-game buzz from Group of Five pundits - especially with the game kicking off with a spread less than a field goal.
The Roadrunners were not competitive in a 49-10 blowout loss, and while that takes some of the excitement off this contest, it should not take away from what made this group such a highly regarded team entering the season.
Prime letdown spot for Texas
This script seems eerily familiar to last year when Texas earned a big road win over then-No. 3 Alabama in Week 2. The Longhorns followed that up with a tidy yet uninspiring victory over a pesky Group of Five team in Wyoming, winning 31-10 but failing to cover as 28.5-point favorites.
That game was tied 10-10 at the end of three quarters before Texas scored 21 unanswered points. But even in such a tight contest, quarterback Quinn Ewers was not asked to do much, as he attempted just 21 passes and threw for a season-low 131 yards.
Texas also appeared unmotivated after its Red River rivalry game against Oklahoma last year, following that with a 31-24 win over Houston as a 23.5-point favorite. Thus, UTSA should catch the Longhorns sleeping after last week’s big win and ahead of a much easier two-game stretch before SEC play begins.
This is a four-star play at anything north of five touchdowns, especially with the rest of our best sportsbooks offering slightly worse odds at +35.5 on the underdogs.
A $10 winning wager at DraftKings would pay out $8.93 in profit.
Best odds: -112 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.83%
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UTSA vs. Texas prop pick for Week 3
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Jaydon Blue Under 81.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Texas State’s passing game was explosive against UTSA, totaling 309 yards through the air and averaging 17.2 yards per reception. That bodes well for a big day for Ewers, while Texas continues to rotate several running backs in the backfield.
Initially, I wanted to play the Over for true freshman Jerrick Gibson’s rushing yards figuring they would be lower than Jaydon Blue’s. Through his first two career games, Gibson leads the team in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and first downs, and he is second in yards after initial contact.
While those odds are not yet available, I still like the Under on Blue’s rushing yards despite him sharing the team lead with Gibson in rushing attempts, as Blue was one of three running backs that received 24% of the carries against Michigan.
I expect Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian to lighten Blue’s workload this week since he was in a walking boot after suffering a lower leg injury in the win over Michigan, making the Under on his rushing yards a confident four-star play.
A winning $10 wager would return a profit of $8.70 at these -115 odds via bet365.
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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UTSA vs. Texas odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
UTSA vs. Texas game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 14
- Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Where: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 99 degrees, 6% chance of precipitation, wind 8 mph SSW
- Favorite: Texas -35.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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