USC vs. Illinois Prediction: Odds & Expert Picks for College Football Week 5
Let's dive into our USC vs. Illinois prediction as part of our college football picks for Week 5. It’s a pivotal Big Ten matchup as No. 21 USC looks to assert itself and No. 23 Illinois seeks to bounce back after a blowout loss to Indiana. The action gets underway at noon ET (FOX) from Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Ill.
USC is a 6.5-point betting favorite for this game despite playing on the road and traveling across the country. My player prop for USC quarterback Jayden Maiava is part of our college football predictions for Week 5 too.
📊 USC vs. Illinois odds
Latest college football odds updated live in real time.
📺️ How to watch USC vs. Illinois
When: Saturday, Sept. 27
Kickoff: Noon ET
Where: Memorial Stadium (Champaign, Ill.)
TV: FOX
🏈 USC vs. Illinois predictions
College football expert picks for Week 5; odds subject to change.
- Game pick: USC -6.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 61.5 (-111 via Fanatics) ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop bet: Jayden Maiava Under 269.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ USC vs. Illinois expert pick
Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.
🗡️ USC -6.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
USC head coach Lincoln Riley's start in L.A. was shaky, but this year’s squad might be one of his best. The team leads the nation in offensive line yards and is the only program generating more than four per play. The Trojans’ line-of-scrimmage dominance has been helping them lead the nation in yards per play with 9.1. No other team is above nine, and only three other schools are higher than eight.
Running the ball down the opponent’s throat is the Trojans' path to winning. They generated 289 rushing yards last week (7.2 per attempt) and three rushing scores. They went into Purdue’s home stadium the week before while gaining 179 yards on the ground (4.6 per attempt) and scoring twice. While USC failed to cover the spread in either contest, they still notched double-digit wins.
USC now faces an Illinois team reeling from a loss to Indiana. The Hoosiers' offensive line generated a solid 3.4 line yards per rush in that outing. Worse, Illinois’ defense failed to cause any real issues for the Hoosiers, as the unit posted a havoc rate of just 7.5%. With a 14.5% defensive havoc rate on the year, I don’t see how Illinois keeps the USC rushing attack out of the end zone.
Buy the Trojans to cover the 6.5 for -115 (53.5%) at BetMGM to score an $8.70 profit on a $10 bet.
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💰 USC vs. Illinois player prop bet
Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬇️ Jayden Maiava Under 269.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐
I’m putting my faith in the USC rushing attack, which leads to me seeing value on the Under for quarterback Jayden Maiava’s passing yards. The USC signal-caller went Over this number in his first three starts of the season, but he stayed Under against Michigan State last week with only 234 yards. The current total of 269.5 is just a bit too high for this matchup.
Illinois’ passing defense isn’t much of a challenge. The Illini rank a dreadful 105th in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.3), and they just gave up an embarrassing 11.6 yards perthrow to Indiana. However, the Hoosiers only ended up passing 33.8% of the time, limiting quarterback Fernando Mendoza to 267 passing yards (cashing an Over for us in the process).
Look for Illinois’ poor defense to give up some significant passing yards early before USC opts to focus on the run. This play comes almost entirely down to game script and volume, not the Illini's defense, so don’t expect splash defensive plays to bail us out down the stretch if Maiava gets close to the number.
Root for a USC blowout instead. Lock this one in for -114 (53.3%) at FanDuel for an $8.77 profit on a $10 bet.
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