UMass vs. New Mexico State Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 0: Can Minutemen Keep it Close?
The New Mexico State Aggies will welcome the UMass Minutemen to town for a Week 0 battle on Saturday as we examine our UMass vs. New Mexico State prediction based on the best college football odds.
The beauty of college football is that we're all going to care about a matchup between New Mexico State and UMass despite both programs being ranked among the worst in the sport via most power ratings entering the 2023 season.
Or, maybe we care only because this game will be broadcast on ESPN to highlight the Week 0 slate, while USC vs. San Jose State is inexplicably relegated to Pac-12 Network.
In fairness, this game could actually be competitive, with the spread trading around a touchdown at our best sports betting apps as we look to make our college football best bets for Week 0.
UMass' recent track record paints a picture of struggle, clinching victory in a mere four games over the course of the past four years. Nonetheless, a dynamic duo of offensive transfers has injected a dose of optimism into the program's outlook, offering a glimmer of promise that the Minutemen won't find themselves languishing at the bottom of the barrel as the 133rd-ranked team among a pool of 133 competitors in the upcoming season.
In the realm of resurrection, a notable precedent exists in the form of New Mexico State. Once mired in a similar quagmire, the Aggies experienced a dramatic reversal of fortune under the astute guidance of head coach Jerry Kill, orchestrating a commendable 7-6 campaign last year.
Here is our best UMass vs. New Mexico State prediction and college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
UMass vs. New Mexico State prediction: Week 0
Over 44.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
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After that intro, you will be surprised to learn that we think this game will be pretty entertaining. Both offenses should be better than expected in a game where I make the total around 48.
That means we recommend placing an Over bet on this Week 0 showdown.
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We are getting a discounted total based on what these teams did last year, including when they met on Oct. 29 during New Mexico State's 23-13 victory. But there is reason to believe both offenses will be better this time around.
The Aggies bring back nine offensive starters, including quarterback Diego Pavia, as they begin their tenure in the Conference USA. The Aggies went 6-1 and averaged about 35 points per game during the back half of their 2022 campaign, which coincided with Pavia taking over the starting job.
As for the Minutemen, they brought in Taisun Phommachanh via the transfer portal, and he's slated to start this weekend. Phommachanh, who began his collegiate career at Clemson, was once considered the No. 3 quarterback in his class by 247Sports. His top target will likely be receiver Mark Pope, who played 34 games at Miami before transferring to Jackson State last year.
SP+ is projecting a 27-20 win for New Mexico State, which could make for a thrilling finish. More importantly, we are banking on our Over ticket being cashed before the final buzzer with our college football Week 0 predictions.
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UMass vs. New Mexico State best odds
FanDuel (-115)
Our best sports betting sites have pushed this total up to about 45 after opening a couple of points lower. FanDuel and BetMGM are offering an outlier line of 44.5, so we suggest taking advantage of their discounted number, as getting below 45 is crucial in this case.
That said, there are other ways to bet on points in this matchup. FanDuel's first-quarter total of 9.5 is worth a look, with the Over priced at -112. DraftKings offers +135 odds on both teams to score 20-plus points for those looking for a plus-money avenue.
All options are on the table in a game that we anticipate will be better than expected.
UMass vs. New Mexico State odds
UMass vs. New Mexico State odds analysis
The best sportsbooks have been taking plenty of action on the Minutemen since releasing the lines over the summer. At Caesars, the spread opened as high as 9.5 before dropping below a touchdown across the board.
The total has also climbed up from as low as 42 to a consensus line of 45 as of this writing.
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UMass vs. New Mexico State game info
- When: Saturday, Aug. 26, 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 91 degrees, 9% chance of precipitation, 9-mph winds
UMass-NMSU pick made on 08/23/2023 at 5 p.m. ET.
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