Tennessee vs. Florida Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 3: Can Gators Spring the Upset?
The Tennessee Volunteers and Florida Gators meet in a classic SEC rivalry on Saturday, as we share our top Tennessee vs. Florida predictions based on the best college football odds from our best sports betting apps.
Last week, following a Week one loss to the Utah Utes, the Florida Gators dominated McNeese's Cowboys with an exciting 49-7 victory, evening up their season record at 1-1.
The Tennessee Volunteers, meanwhile, faced a tough challenge against the lowly Austin Peay Colonels last week. They had to fight their way to a 30-13 win, after head coach Josh Heupel's team held a narrow seven-point lead at halftime.
As part of our college football best bets for Week 3, here is our best Tennessee vs. Florida prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Tennessee vs. Florida prediction: Week 3
Florida +6.5 (-104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
It’s clear that the Volunteers have taken a significant step back after last season. Running back Jaylen Wright has run for 115 or more yards in his first two games, and Joe Milton III has yet to throw an interception. However, the offense hasn’t looked great as a whole, and the defense is not nearly the caliber needed to be an SEC contender.
For the Gators, Graham Mertz has a chance to have a huge coming-out game against a Volunteers’ defense, which gave up 260 passing yards to Austin Peay’s Mike DiLiello last week. In the Gators’ Week 1 loss to Utah, Mertz set a career-high with 333 yards. There is a very real possibility he will top that this week.
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But the real difference-maker in this one is going to be the Gators’ defense. After a blown coverage on the Utes’ first play from scrimmage in the opener, the defense settled in. Two of the Utes’ next three scoring drives began on the Gators’ side of the field. Even though they gave up 24 points, they only allowed 270 yards, and 70 of those came on the first play.
Mertz needs to avoid mistakes against the Volunteers. If he does, then the Gators’ defense is going to do enough not just to help the Gators cover but also win this game outright. Take the points, but if you can get this moneyline at +200 or better, you should consider it as well.
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Tennessee vs. Florida best odds
FanDuel (-104)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
| +6.5 | +6.5 | +6.5 | +6.5 | +6.5 |
| -110 | -104 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Every sportsbook is in agreement about what the spread should be, but the price at FanDuel is significantly better than anywhere else. FanDuel’s price actually suggests that this line may move to +7 before long, so if you really want the half-point, you could wait this out a bit.
Tennessee vs. Florida odds
Tennessee vs. Florida odds analysis
The Volunteers opened as 7.5-point favorites, but that spread has dropped despite them receiving 73% of wagers thus far. We don’t think this spread is going to shrink any further, but we think it’s clear that oddsmakers are comfortable ignoring the public for now. If you’re on the Gators, there’s no harm in waiting, because if this line moves, it will almost certainly be to the key number of seven.
The total opened at 58.5, and it has stayed there despite 63% of wagers backing the Over. This feels like a high opening line, but if bettors continue to support the Over, it could go higher. That being said, we don’t know what to expect oddsmakers to do with this line before kickoff.
Tennessee vs. Florida game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 16, 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 67 degrees, 6-mph winds, 25% chance of precipitation
Tennessee vs. Florida prediction made Wednesday at 4:35 p.m. ET.
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