San Diego State vs. California Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 3
The California Golden Bears will look to improve to 3-0 when they take on the San Diego State Aztecs on Saturday.
The Aztecs’ offense failed to put up any points in Week 2, and this week, they face a Golden Bears team that hasn’t allowed more than 14 points in a game this season. As part of our Week 3 college football predictions, my San Diego State vs. California predictions focus on whether or not the Aztecs will be able to score to keep this game close.
The Golden Bears are 2-0, but they certainly haven’t looked unbeatable. They defeated the Auburn Tigers 21-14 but only beat the UC Davis Aggies 31-13 in Week 1. Can they cover a spread greater than 17 points?
Best San Diego State vs. California picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: San Diego State +18 (-105 via BetMGM) vs. California ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop pick: Marquez Cooper Over 61.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
San Diego State vs. California against the spread prediction: Week 3
San Diego State to cover the spread: +18 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐
San Diego State vs. California opening odds:
- San Diego State: +17.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- California: -17 (-110 via DraftKings)
Our best sports betting sites have the Golden Bears favored by 17.5, except for BetMGM, where the spread has moved to 18. If you’re on the Aztecs, this is the place to bet as it offers the best value.
Lack of offense keeps things tight
With Payton Thorne under center, the Auburn Tigers aren’t going to make much noise in the SEC this season. However, traveling across the country and beating them on their home field the way the Golden Bears did in Week 2 was impressive. California forced five turnovers and held Auburn to fewer than 300 yards.
Now the Golden Bears get a matchup that looks easy. But the Aztecs are sound defensively, and despite losing 21-0 last week against the Oregon State Beavers, the score was just 7-0 entering the fourth quarter.
The Golden Bears don’t have enough offense to warrant a spread of 18 in this game. They defeated UC Davis by that margin in Week 1 and only scored 21 points in Week 2.
The Aztecs are better than the final score of last week’s game suggests. They will cover if they score one touchdown in this game, but this is only a three-star play because that is a big if.
Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 51.22%
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San Diego State vs. California prop pick for Week 3
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Marquez Cooper Over 61.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐
Cooper ran 13 times for 53 yards in last week’s loss. It was a disappointing effort on the heels of a 223-yard performance in Week 1. The Golden Bears are the best team he’s faced this season, but with them coming off their win over the Tigers, this will be closer than it should be. That means Cooper will run more than 15 times.
Last season, while with Ball State, Cooper ran at least 15 times nine times. He topped 61 yards in all but two of those contests. In last week’s win, the Golden Bears allowed Jarquez Hunter to run for 68 yards against them on 12 carries. That’s an average of 5.7 yards per carry.
FanDuel is offering this total one yard lower than Caesars, and the price is about the same, so FanDuel is the place to play. This total is lower than it should be because of Cooper’s performance last week. Take advantage of that.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
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San Diego State vs. California odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
San Diego State vs. California game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 14
- Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
- Where: California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, Calif.
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 57 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 10 mph wind
- Favorite: California (-1000 via bet365)
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