San Diego State vs. New Mexico Picks, Predictions College Football Week 12: Aztecs Laying Two Scores
Friday's Mountain West contest pits the best in the West in San Diego State against the worst the Mountain Division has to offer in New Mexico. Check out our San Diego State-New Mexico college football picks and predictions.
The Lobos’ offense has been atrocious, scoring 10 or fewer points in four consecutive games. Since taking over as the starting quarterback, sophomore Justin Holaday has thrown for just 207 yards in three games.
Meanwhile, the Aztecs are coming off a huge 43-27 win over San Jose State, which made them bowl-eligible and - at least for the moment - kept their Mountain West title game hopes alive.
Here are our top picks for the college football Week 12 game between San Diego State and New Mexico (odds via BetMGM and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our top college football picks for Week 12.
San Diego State vs. New Mexico Game Info
Date: Friday,
Nov. 18, 9:45 p.m. ET
TV: FS1
Location: University Stadium,
Albuquerque, NM
Weather: 24 degrees, 5% chance of
precipitation, 7-mph winds
San Diego State vs. New Mexico Odds
San Diego State vs. New Mexico Odds Analysis
The Aztecs are favored by two touchdowns. Betting action has been evenly split with 54% of the tickets accounting for 49% of the handle on the Aztecs to cover the big number.
The Over/Under has dropped significantly from the consensus opening line of 40 down to 36. The Over has drawn 61% of the tickets but just 36% of the handle.
San Diego State vs. New Mexico Picks
San Diego State vs. New Mexico ATS Pick
New Mexico +14.5 (-110) ★★
While New Mexico’s offense has been terrible this season, the Aztecs have struggled to score at times as well. They are averaging just 21.9 points per game, and their 43-point performance against San Jose State was more than their previous two games combined.
The Lobos are averaging just 14.7 points per game, and no matter who plays quarterback, they can’t move the football. They’re averaging just 108.5 yards passing per game.
However, the Aztecs have been inconsistent this season. They won at home by just two against Hawaii, and they barely survived against 4-6 UNLV two weeks ago. The Lobos are bad, but they’re going to keep this close because the Aztecs aren’t good enough to blow them away.
San Diego State vs. New Mexico O/U Pick
Under 39.5 (-110) ★★★
The Aztecs have seen the final score of three of their six conference games clear 40 points this season. Those three games also happened to be against the three best teams in the Mountain West. Against lackluster opponents, they have not been part of a game that finished with a total higher than 30.
The Lobos are one of two teams without a conference win in the Mountain West this season. Since conference play started, they have scored 20 points just once. In six conference games, they are averaging 13.2 points per game. They haven’t scored two touchdowns in a game in more than a month, but they have also allowed only one opponent to score more than 40 points in that time.
San Diego State vs. New Mexico Prop Pick
San Diego State to win by 7-12 (+490) ★★
In conference play, the Aztecs have had a serious problem with playing down to their competition. They defeated UNLV 14-10, Hawaii 16-14, and Nevada 23-7. Against the Wolf Pack, they led just 13-7 at halftime and had only 317 yards of offense for the game.
The Lobos have had a very hard time scoring this season, and there is a chance that the Aztecs shut them out. But San Diego State has allowed a touchdown in every game this season. Additionally, the Aztecs are averaging just 17.7 points per game in their three wins over the worst teams in their conference.
This game could easily end 17-7 or 17-10, without either team doing anything other than what they have been doing all season. And at such an inflated number, this is absolutely worth a play.
Where to Bet on San Diego State-New Mexico Picks
Check out our best sportsbooks:
San Diego State-New Mexico picks made 11/15/2022 at 2:03 p.m. ET
Related Articles
