Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State Prediction: Odds, Picks & Best Bets for College Football Week 6

With Thursday's Conference USA showdown, I'm making my Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State prediction and college football picks. This weeknight conference matchup is slated for Thursday, Oct. 2, at 9 p.m. ET (CBSSN) from Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, N.M.

Sam Houston is a 2.5-point betting favorite on the road despite sitting at 0-4. Make sure to check out the rest of our college football predictions for Week 6 so that you don’t miss out on any winning plays, including the below player prop for Hunter Watson.

📊 Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State odds

Latest college football odds updated live in real time.

🏈 Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State predictions

College football expert picks for Week 6; confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale.

• Game pick: Sam Houston ML (-130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Over/Under pick: Over 53.5 (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐
• Player prop bet: Hunter Watson to score an anytime touchdown (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

✅ Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State expert pick

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

🟠 Sam Houston ML (-130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Neither Sam Houston (0-4) nor New Mexico State (2-2) is playing good football right now. NMSU’s two wins weren’t impressive - they beat Bryant by 16 (failing to cover) and then upset Tulsa in Las Cruces thanks to some good turnover luck. Sam Houston may not have a win or a cover, but the team’s opponents have all been solid. The Bearkats just played at Texas before their bye. 

This game will probably be decided in the trenches. NMSU, despite not having played a single team from a power conference, ranks dead last in offensive line yards (1.76), making the Aggies the only team sitting below the two-yard mark. That’s led them to average an embarrassing 39.5 rushing yards per game on 1.5 yards per attempt (1.1 yards per attempt when excluding FCS Bryant). NMSU also ranks third-worst in offensive havoc allowed at 22.2%. 

Sam Houston’s offense, led by new head coach Phil Longo, should bounce back after a slow start against a NMSU defense that ranks well below the league average in havoc generated (13%) and is about average in defensive line yards (2.8). Longo couldn’t get his passing scheme to work in Wisconsin, but it should come together in this spot – NMSU also ranks 116th in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.8).

When a team can’t run the football, a lot can go wrong. No team in the country is running it less effectively than NMSU. Back Sam Houston to pull off the road upset at -130 (56.5%) on DraftKings to score a $7.69 profit on a $10 bet.

💰 Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State player prop bet

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

🔥 Hunter Watson to score an anytime touchdown (-125) ⭐⭐

Don’t expect to see many player prop markets open for this game. NMSU quarterback Logan Fife has several lines available, and while there could be some value on the Over for his passing yardage props, I don’t see enough to pull the trigger. Instead, give me Sam Houston quarterback Hunter Watson to score a touchdown for -125 (55.6%) at DraftKings to earn an $8 profit on a $10 bet.

Watson has two touchdowns in three games after missing Sam Houston’s third game with an injury. He leads the team in total rushing yards (140) and rushing yards per game (46.7). Importantly, his two rushing scores are also his only touchdowns - he has yet to throw a touchdown pass. Watson also threw zero touchdowns versus NMSU last year while running for 116 yards and two scores.

While there isn’t a ton of value on this prop, there is enough to warrant at least a small wager on the mobile quarterback to find paydirt.

📺 How to watch Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State

• When: Thursday, Oct. 2
• Time: 9 p.m. ET
• Where: Aggie Memorial Stadium, (Las Cruces, N.M.)
• TV: CBSSN