Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 3: Count on Points in Backyard Brawl

Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: September 16, 2023 5:51 PM EDT • 2 min 51 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Head coach Neal Brown argues a call as we share our favorite West Virginia vs. Houston pick. — Head coach Neal Brown of the West Virginia Mountaineers argues a call in the first half of the play against the Iowa State Cyclones. Photo by David Purdy/Getty Images via AFP.

In our prediction for the Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia game, based on the best college football odds, we anticipate a high-scoring game between two rivals with potent offenses and questionable defensive units.

The Backyard Brawl is one of the fiercest rivalries in college football. Both Pitt and West Virginia enter this year's matchup with 1-1 records, hoping to avoid falling below .500.

Though we've witnessed the total drop from its opening line, this matchup appears on paper to be one that could involve plenty of scoring.

Here is our best Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia prediction: Week 3

Over 47 (-110 via Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The efficiency rankings for Pitt and West Virginia would suggest that both offenses can find success. Pitt ranks 48th in offensive efficiency and should be able to exploit West Virginia’s dismal 92nd-ranked defensive efficiency on the ground and through the air.

As the Panthers rank inside the top 25 in fewest seconds per play offensively this season, Pitt should push the pace against a West Virginia defense that surrendered a puzzling 17 points to FCS Duquesne and more recently gave up 38 points to Penn State. Pitt’s offense should be able to establish the running game to allow QB Phil Jurkovec to find success passing.

For the Mountaineers, a balanced attack that still managed over 300 yards on the road against a nasty Nittany Lions defense should move the ball on Pitt. The Panthers rank outside the top 50 in defensive efficiency and allowed Cincinnati to run for over 200 yards in their only game against an FBS opponent so far this year.

A back-and-forth affair where both teams reach the mid-20s seems plausible here, so it’s a surprise to see such a drastic drop to the total from its opening line.

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Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia best odds

Caesars, bet365 (-110)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
Over 48	Over 47.5	Over 47.5	Over 47	Over 47
-110	-110	-105	-110	-110

After opening at 50.5, this total has taken a dive across the board at our best sports betting apps.

Caesars and bet365 are presently the spots that offer the best number, with the total down to 47 (-110).

BetMGM offers the number at 47.5, but the discounted -105 odds are at least worth considering. Don’t play this wager at the current odds at FanDuel or DraftKings, though, as you can find either better odds or a better number at plenty of other shops.

Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia odds

Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia odds analysis

Pittsburgh opened as a 1.5-point road favorite and has moved across the board to -2.5 at most of our best sports betting sites. If the industry trends follow DraftKings (-3, -115), we could see further movement on this spread. At this time, 59% of the wagers have come in on the Panthers.

The total opened at 50.5 and has dropped considerably to between 47 and 48 across our recommended sportsbooks. For now, 61% of the wagers on the total have gone Over.

Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia game info

When: Saturday, Sept. 16 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, WV
How to watch: ABC
Weather: 67 degrees, 3% chance of precipitation, 5 mph winds

Pittsburgh-West Virginia prediction made Thursday at 3:30 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer

Since graduating from the University of Missouri in 2016, Brenden Schaeffer has covered the St. Louis Cardinals and Blues hockey as a writer for KMOV in St. Louis. He also co-hosts 'The Big Show' on KTGR radio in Columbia, Missouri. The show airs in afternoon drive, weekdays from 4-6 p.m. Brenden has contributed to SBR since 2021, providing insights on NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, and the NBA. You can download his daily baseball podcast, B-Schaeff Daily, on Spotify or Apple podcasts, and you can find Brenden across social media @bschaeffer12.