Ohio vs. San Diego State Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 0: Can Aztecs Win Opener?
In what should be the top matchup of Week 0, the San Diego State Aztecs are set to host the Ohio Bobcats on Saturday inside Snapdragon Stadium. Read on for our Ohio vs. San Diego State prediction based on the best college football odds.
Week 0 is merely just the appetizer for the 2023 college football season. It's a chance for us to watch meaningful football again without being overloaded by a full Saturday slate that features several different marquee matchups.
That said, you won't want to miss Saturday's showdown between San Diego State and Ohio. These two Group of Five programs are slated to square off in what should be the most interesting battle during the opening weekend. And that's evident by the fact the spread is just below a field goal at the best sports betting apps.
So, which team will pick up a key nonconference victory to begin the 2023 campaign and helps us cash our college football best bets for Week 0?
Here is our best Ohio vs. San Diego State prediction and college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Ohio vs. San Diego State prediction: Week 0
San Diego State ML (-125 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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You can't just come into Snapdragon Stadium and expect to win. San Diego State is the play at these reduced moneyline odds, especially since we project the home team to be favored by north of a field goal.
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Recent market trends have propelled the Bobcats to a point of equilibrium, evolving into a true toss-up proposition. The buzz amplified on Monday, fueled by the revelation that quarterback Kurtis Rourke is primed to take the helm. After weathering an ACL injury setback that limited his participation to a mere 11 games last season, Rourke emerged as a luminous force, seizing the coveted MAC Offensive Player of the Year accolade for his exceptional exploits. His aerial mastery saw him orchestrating 21 touchdown throws and amassing a formidable yardage tally of 2,725.
The resurgence of Rourke on the gridiron stands as a monumental development for the Ohio squad. Their resounding 10-4 performance last season laid a firm foundation, and the team's pole position selection in this year's media poll for the MAC East division underscored their lofty aspirations. However, as the week unfolded, an intriguing shift in the spread materialized, leading to a point of contention in my assessment. The recent adjustment appeared to push the line to an excessive degree, especially in light of the prior reportage indicating Rourke's encouraging trajectory during the conference's media day held just last month.
Bill Connelly's SP+ projects a 7.7 margin in favor of the Aztecs, giving them a 67% chance of victory in Week 0. Tyler Shoemaker's TSI makes the spread 6.4, with a 67.9% chance of SDSU winning outright. My power ratings give slightly more respect to Ohio, but the line is still priced closer to the opening spread.
Despite bringing back only six defensive starters, we can count on the Aztecs to continue being elite on that end. They have allowed under 21 points per game in each of the last four seasons, ranking in the top 30 in success rate, havoc created, and EPA per play last year.
San Diego State's offense could even show some improvement with quarterback Jalen Mayden back under center. Mayden threw for 2,030 yards and 12 touchdowns after starting the year as a safety.
This should be an entertaining matchup and could potentially come down to the very end. But I'm counting on the Aztecs to prevail for a Week 0 victory.
Contrary to my pick, our Mike Spector is riding with Ohio as one of his Week 0 upset picks.
Ohio vs. San Diego State best odds
BetMGM (-135)
When it was announced that Rourke would start, the market made one final push on the spread to get it below a field goal. This opened an opportunity to buy a discounted moneyline price on the Aztecs to win outright, which I certainly took advantage of with a -125 ticket via FanDuel on Monday afternoon.
Caesars had a -125 price when this article was published, but that value is now gone.
BetMGM is currently offering the biggest discount among the best sportsbooks with a -135 listing on SDSU ML, which is the most juice we'd be willing to pay for this bet.
Get the best odds on this matchup with our BetMGM bonus code: SBRBONUS.
Ohio vs. San Diego State odds
Ohio vs. San Diego State odds analysis
With lines being available for much of the summer, we have seen plenty of movement on this Ohio-SDSU matchup.
The spread was trading as high as 4.5 earlier in the offseason, but has been pushed down to 2.5 across our best sports betting sites. The line was sitting at 3 and 3.5 before Rourke was announced as the starter for Saturday's matchup.
As for the total, the line opened at 48.5 and touched as high as 50.5 throughout the offseason. The consensus price is now sitting at 49, which is right in like with our projection.
Ohio vs. San Diego State game info
- When: Saturday, Aug. 26, 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
- How to watch: FS1
- Weather: 63 degrees, 6% chance of precipitation, 5-10 mph NW winds
Ohio-SDSU pick made on 08/23/2023 at 4:45 p.m. ET.
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