Northwestern vs. Wisconsin Week 11 Picks: Badgers Will Move Closer to Big Ten Championship

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 9, 2021 9:43 AM EST • 2 min 22 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

MADISON, WISCONSIN - SEPTEMBER 11: Braelon Allen #0 of the Wisconsin Badgers stiff arms a defender during a run against the Eastern Michigan Eagles in the second half of the game at Camp Randall Stadium on September 11, 2021 in Madison, Wisconsin. John Fisher/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by John Fisher / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The Big Ten West Division is a logjam, as four teams are tied for first with 4-2 conference records. The Wisconsin Badgers are one of those squads, and they're looking to take advantage of a soft conference schedule down the stretch and claim their spot in the Big Ten Championship. But will the Northwestern Wildcats play spoiler on Saturday?

Northwestern has lost three consecutive games by an average of 19.3 points. The Wildcats are looking for their first road win this season after dropping three contests away from home by a combined 82 points.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin has turned its season around over the last month while winning five consecutive games after a 1-3 start. The Badgers are 5-4 ATS this season and 2-3 ATS at home.

Here are my picks and predictions for the college football Week 11 matchup between the Wildcats and the Badgers (odds via DraftKings, and pick confidence is based on a one-to-five star scale).

Northwestern Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, November 13 at noon ETTV: ESPN 2Location: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WIWeather: 40 degrees, mostly sunny

Northwestern Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers Odds Analysis

The Badgers are 24-point home favorites against the Wildcats, with many sportsbooks favoring Wisconsin at -24.5. That's the largest point spread for Wisconsin's conference games this season. The Badgers' previous largest spread came last week against Rutgers, and they covered easily as 13-point road favorites in a 52-3 win.

The Over/Under has generally settled at 41, though the line has sunk as low as 40.5 and risen as high as 41.5 points. The Under has cashed after seven of the last eight meetings between these teams.

Northwestern Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers Betting Picks

Wisconsin -24 (-115) ???Under 41 (-105) ??

Northwestern Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers Predictions

Wisconsin -24 (-115)

The Badgers enter this contest on a five-game winning streak, and they're also coming off the team's most dominant performance this season. Wisconsin outgained Rutgers 579-207, with that yardage total the squad's most in a conference game since November 2019.

However, the most impressive part of the Badgers' offensive performance was their balance, as they produced 250-plus yards on the ground and through the air. Wisconsin hasn't finished a game with 250-plus passing and rushing yards since 2016, and the last time the school accomplished that in a conference matchup came in 2010.

Wisconsin has always been known for its strong defense, but the team is now forcing turnovers at a staggering rate. The Badgers forced eight across wins over Iowa and Purdue before finishing with four more against Rutgers.

Northwestern plays Wisconsin tough, as the Wildcats have covered the spread in each of the last four meetings. The Badgers have won their previous two home games in this series by nine points each, but this year’s team is playing too well in all three phases to let Northwestern stick around.

Under 41 (-105)

We're not leaving much wiggle room while laying 24 points with the favorites and predicting an Under on 41 points. That's the biggest reason this is a two-star play, but we have confidence in Wisconsin’s defense shutting down Northwestern’s offense.

The Badgers are averaging just 7.4 points allowed per game during their five-game winning streak, and the Wildcats have topped 14 points just once over their last five matchups.

Wisconsin’s Leo Chenal and Jack Sanborn are the two highest-graded linebackers in the Big Ten this season, according to PFF. They're the main contributors to a Badgers run defense that's the nation's best while allowing a minuscule 54.7 rushing yards per game.

The under is 7-3 in Wisconsin’s last 10 conference games, and the Badgers will ride another dominant defensive performance to an easy victory.

SEE ALSO: Maryland vs. Michigan Picks

Picks made 11/9/2021 at 2:10 p.m. ET

Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”